A week ago, we found ourselves suddenly down to 12 unbeaten college football teams following a particularly madcap Week 6. The remaining members of the club regrouped, however. In Week 7, the only loss for an unbeaten (Ohio State) came at the hands of another (Oregon), and everyone else was either on bye or survived and advanced.
So here we are, midway through the regular season, down to 11 teams with perfect records. We're going to rank the remaining members of the club and talk about each team's biggest remaining question. But first, we must talk about two teams in particular.
Last week, Army and Navy each reached 5-0 in the same season for the first time since 1945. On Sunday they both landed spots in the AP Top 25 for the first time since October 1960. Both will play Notre Dame in the coming weeks, and Navy hosts Tulane in a huge Week 12 matchup as well. If Navy wins that one, it goes from conceivable to likely that we could get an Army-Navy American Athletic championship game in Week 15 (possibly with the winner qualifying for the College Football Playoff), followed by the normal Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland, the next Saturday.
It's almost impossible to describe how much of a delightful surprise this is.
Jump to a section:
How Army and Navy are still here
Ranking the unbeatens
How Army, Navy are still here
In 2023, their records disguised the mediocrity. Army went 6-6, but two wins came against FCS schools, and while Jeff Monken's Black Knights did beat two SP+ top-50 teams (UTSA and Air Force) they lost to two others by a combined 81-0 and lost to two of the 10 worst teams in FBS (Louisiana Monroe and UMass) as well. The offense turned the ball over far too much, and the only thing it accomplished was moving slowly enough that a bend-don't-break defense didn't face many drives. The average score in Army's four FBS wins was 24-16. Quarterback Bryson Daily averaged 4.5 yards per carry (not including sacks) and 6.8 yards per dropback. Mediocre stuff.
Navy, meanwhile, went 5-7 in Brian Newberry's first season as head coach, with three wins against teams 111th or worse in SP+. They played three top-50 teams and lost by an average of 39-8. The offense didn't turn the ball over the way Army did, but it didn't go anywhere either. Four different QBs saw action, and none were particularly impressive. A sophomore named Blake Horvath averaged the most yards per carry (5.2 not including sacks) and most yards per dropback (7.1), though 68 of his 84 total passing yards came on one completion to wideout Eli Heidenreich during a two-touchdown loss to USF.
Following rule changes that outlawed blocking below the waist outside the tackle box -- a staple for teams running the type of flexbone option attack that led Army to a 21-5 combined record in 2017-18, and Ken Niumatalolo's Navy to 11-win seasons and ranked finishes in 2015 and 2019 -- it felt like both programs had run aground.
To say the least, it no longer feels like that.
In 2024, the records almost disguise the dominance. Army and Navy have combined to play only one team that ranks better than 104th in SP+, but after losing to plenty of teams of that caliber last season, they're now a combined 11-0 with wins by an average of 41-15. Army ranks second in success rate and first in points per drive, while Navy ranks sixth and fourth, respectively.
Daily is averaging 6.9 yards per (non-sack) carry and a whopping 13.0 yards per dropback; that's good enough to rank him fourth in Total QBR, almost unheard of for an option quarterback. Horvath is at 9.3 yards per carry and 11.8 yards per dropback. He's first in Total QBR. They've combined for 27 completions of 20-plus yards, 13 touchdown passes and just one interception, all while piloting their team's most efficient rushing attack in years.
Daily's backfield mates Kanye Udoh and Noah Short have combined for 106 carries, 928 yards and 9 touchdowns. Horvath has gotten 5.6 yards per carry from a trio of backs (Alex Tecza, Brandon Chatman and Daba Fofana), while Heidenreich, lining up as both a receiver and a slotback, has rushed 20 times for 172 yards while catching 20 passes for 449 yards and five scores.
Facing an uncertain future with rule changes and an NIL and transfer portal environment that only moved players in one direction -- from the service academies but not to them -- Army and Navy have flipped their fortunes completely. And incredibly, they've each reignited their offenses by basically making the exact opposite decisions.
Army has gone back to basics: After attempting to adjust its attack for the new blocking rules last season and moving to more of a spread-heavy, shotgun look, the Black Knights have gone back under center this year. With quarterbacks coach Cody Worley moving to offensive coordinator, they've begun using more motion again, and Daily is typically staying in the pocket to pass.
Army pct. of snaps in shotgun: 10.3% in 2022, 80.3% in 2023, 20.2% in 2024
Army pct. of snaps with motion at the snap: 67.8% in 2022, 36.9% in 2023, 55.6% in 2024
Army pct. of dropbacks with QB in pocket: 81.5% in 2022, 67.0% in 2023, 80.9% in 2024
Army is remaining ruthlessly efficient but making more big plays than ever by doing as many things as possible like it used to. Navy, meanwhile, made changes. Newberry brought in former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic, whose offense was one of the more enjoyable FCS attacks last season (and led the Bears to their best Division I season). He has introduced motion and play action in droves, and he's discovered that Horvath is great in rollout situations, so he's doing a lot of that too.
Navy pct. of snaps with motion: 50.9% in 2023, 76.2% in 2024
Navy pct. of dropbacks with rollouts: 6.8% in 2023, 19.7% in 2024
Navy pct. of dropbacks with play action: 20.9% in 2023, 38.2% in 2024
Against the one good opponent either team has faced, Cronic's Navy attack was otherworldly. The Midshipmen gained 566 yards at 10.7 per play in a 56-44 win over Memphis that at least temporarily wrecked the Tigers' College Football Playoff plans. The Middies went three-and-out on their first series, then scored TDs on seven of their next eight drives with gains of 90, 60, 46, 46, 39, 27, 23 and 20 yards. Horvath threw for 192 yards and two scores and rushed for 211 and four.
Honestly, the result seemed to completely reset expectations for both Navy and its biggest rival. We're in uncharted waters here, and this list is a lot more fun because of it.
Ranking the unbeatens
1. Texas Longhorns (6-0)
Last week's ranking: first
SP+ and FPI rankings: first and first
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 30.1%
What they did in Week 8: def. Oklahoma 34-3
Biggest remaining question: Is Quinn Ewers up for this? It took only two drives Saturday until a Texas friend started texting me about benching Ewers. In his first game back after missing nearly a month with an oblique injury, Ewers began Saturday's win over Oklahoma in about second gear. His first seven pass attempts produced a sack, an interception and three completions for just 13 yards. After scoring just once in their first five drives, the Longhorns began tilting the field and scoring at will, but Ewers still finished the day 20-for-29 for just 199 yards. He threw six passes more than 15 yards downfield and went 1-for-6 with a pick. His biggest pass of the day, a 44-yarder to Ryan Wingo, was thrown just 3 yards downfield.
Is this framing a bit unfair? Of course. It was Ewers' first game back, and Oklahoma's defense is awesome. Ewers didn't have to take a single risk because OU's overwhelmed offense was never going to score enough on Texas' defense to keep up. Red River might be one of the sport's biggest rivalries, but OU is flawed enough that this was more of a tuneup for the main event, this Saturday's showdown between Texas and Georgia.
Granted, the UGA defense hasn't been incredibly sharp in 2024; in fact, the Dawgs as a whole have only really shifted into fifth gear for two of 12 halves. But it's fair to suggest that a better version of Ewers has to show up this Saturday. Considering how steady he was in the Horns' easy Week 2 win at Michigan -- he was 18-for-26 for 203 yards and two TDs as Texas built a 24-3 halftime lead -- his A-game is more than effective enough to lead the No. 1 team in the country, even against a team like Georgia. But ... he has still got that A-game, right? The rust is gone now, right?
Next test (next game with SP+ win probability at 75% or lower): Week 8 vs. Georgia
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0)
Last week's ranking: third
SP+ and FPI rankings: sixth and ninth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 19.3%
What the Nittany Lions did in Week 8: def. USC 33-30 (OT)
Biggest remaining question: Are the big plays disappearing? Andy Kotelnicki is Penn State's offensive coordinator because the Nittany Lions didn't make nearly enough big plays last season. Filtering out garbage time, PSU's offense ranked 21st in success rate in 2023 but averaged just 10.8 yards per successful play, a ghastly 129th. James Franklin brought Kotelnicki in from Kansas to rectify that.
This year, both numbers have indeed improved. The Nittany Lions are sixth in success rate, with Drew Allar completing 71% of his passes, primarily to tight end and efficiency machine Tyler Warren. However, they're still only averaging 12.5 yards per successful play (85th). Better? Yes. But among unbeatens, only Liberty has been less explosive. And the trend isn't a positive one. PSU averaged a robust 15.2 yards per successful play in nonconference games, but it's gone right back down to 10.3 in Big Ten games.
Allar was brilliant in bringing Penn State back from 14 down to beat USC in overtime Saturday, and Warren had just about the best game you'll ever see from a tight end (17 catches, 224 yards, 1 TD, plus a 4-yard rush and a 9-yard pass). But the Nittany Lions trailed by 14 in the first place because after a solid first drive resulted in a short field goal, they went punt-interception-punt-FG, with zero gains over 20 yards, for the rest of the first half. Efficiency is a great, sustainable thing, but big plays win games, and PSU is just barely getting enough of those.
Next test: Week 10 vs. Ohio State
3. Oregon Ducks (6-0)
Last week's ranking: fifth
SP+ and FPI rankings: seventh and eighth
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 31.6%
What the Ducks did in Week 8: def. Ohio State 32-31
Biggest remaining question: Can the Ducks keep overcoming red zone failures? The national average for red zone touchdown rate is 63.1%. Through six games, Oregon has averaged 61.5% on offense (73rd) and allowed 64.7% on defense (94th). Among unbeatens, the Ducks rank last on both sides of the ball.
The Ducks were 2-for-5 (40%) in the red zone in Saturday's win over Ohio State. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, were 5-for-5. That the Ducks won anyway, thanks to a pair of longer TDs, is one hell of an accomplishment. After struggling with explosiveness early in the season, they produced gains of 69, 48 (TD), 32, 32, 28, 27 (TD), 26 and 25 against what had been the top-ranked defense, per SP+. But giving away red zone points is a surefire way to lose a game you expected to win at some point. Can the Ducks shore things up near the goal line before it backfires?
Next test: Week 10 at Michigan
4. Miami Hurricanes (6-0)
Last week's ranking: fourth
SP+ and FPI rankings: eighth and 10th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 28.8%
What the Hurricanes did in Week 8: bye
Biggest remaining question: Is this defense trending in the wrong direction? Over their first four games, Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes were nearly perfect, beating Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State and South Florida by an average of 52-10. Cam Ward barged his way into the Heisman race, and Miami was looking like a genuine title contender. In the past two games, however, only one unit has continued to look the part.
Miami vs. SP+, first four games: overachieved by 10.1 PPG on offense and 6.5 PPG on defense
Miami vs. SP+, past two games: overachieved by 3.1 PPG on offense, underachieved by 15.0 PPG on defense
Ward and the Miami offense have remained phenomenal since, averaging 38.5 points and 541.5 yards in the past two games. But the Hurricanes nearly lost both because the defense got lit up by Virginia Tech (44th in offensive SP+) and Cal (56th). Four of Miami's next six opponents rank 55th or better in offensive SP+. Can the Hurricanes rein in opponents' big plays, or are there more track meets on the way?
Next test: Week 8 at Louisville
5. Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)
Last week's ranking: sixth
SP+ and FPI rankings: 15th and 15th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 3.3%
What the Hoosiers did in Week 8: bye
Biggest remaining question: Is the defense also trending in the wrong direction? Take what I said about Miami and repeat it here.
Indiana vs. SP+, first three games: overachieved by 15.8 PPG on offense and 7.9 PPG on defense
Indiana vs. SP+, past three games: overachieved by 13.5 PPG on offense, underachieved by 5.3 PPG on defense
Projected 81st in SP+ but now up to 15th, Indiana has, as one might expect, overachieved pretty dramatically against projections. But that overachievement has been limited to quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers offense in recent weeks. The Hoosiers allowed 28 points to Maryland and 24 to Northwestern, and while they still won comfortably because they scored 40-plus, neither the Terrapins nor Wildcats rank better than 68th in offensive SP+. Four of IU's next five opponents do, however. Can Indiana arrest that defensive slide before it becomes a problem?
Next test: Week 8 vs. Nebraska
6. Iowa State Cyclones (6-0)
Last week's ranking: seventh
SP+ and FPI rankings: 18th and 17th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 7.0%
What the Cyclones did in Week 8: def. West Virginia 28-16
Biggest remaining question: Can the run keep helping Rocco Becht? Iowa State has won each of its first three Big 12 games by double digits. Jon Heacock's ever-frustrating defense is sixth in points allowed per drive and doing the bend-don't-break thing better than ever. The Cyclones offense is more explosive than usual, with 23% of completions gaining 20-plus yards (16th nationally). An inconsistent run game has given Becht some holes to dig out of, though: ISU ranks 83rd in success rate on standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less) but 21st on passing downs. Running back Carson Hansen was wonderfully efficient against WVU (20 carries, 65% success rate) in a sturdy and poised road win, and if that's sustainable, the Cyclones are Big 12 favorites. But they've gotten this far in part because Becht has bailed them out.
Next test: Week 8 vs. UCF
7. BYU Cougars (6-0)
Last week's ranking: ninth
SP+ and FPI rankings: 29th and 29th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 5.8%
What the Cougars did in Week 8: def. Arizona 41-19
Biggest remaining question: Can the offense score when it has to? Army and Navy have sucked up a lot of the oxygen in the Incredible Turnarounds department, but Kalani Sitake has pulled off something pretty incredible in Provo this year too. The Cougars have already topped last year's win total thanks to an almost weakness-free defense that has allowed more than 19 points just once. (And that was after they had built a 28-7 lead on Baylor.)
The offense ranks just 56th in points per drive, however. It has its moments, but the Cougars aren't particularly explosive and go three-and-out quite a bit. And in their two closest games, they scored just 18 points against SMU and scored just 6 in their past eight drives against Baylor. The defense has come through constantly, but the offense isn't trustworthy just yet.
Next test: Week 8 vs. Oklahoma State
8. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-0)
Last week's ranking: eighth
SP+ and FPI rankings: 31st and 36th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 1.5%
What the Panthers did in Week 8: def. Cal 17-15
Biggest remaining question: How long can the close-game magic last? Filtering out games against Youngstown State (50th in FCS SP+) and Kent State (133rd in FBS), Pitt has won four games by an average of 29-25. The Panthers trailed Cincinnati by 21 with 16 minutes left, trailed West Virginia by 10 with four minutes left and gave Cal a look at a 40-yard field goal for the lead with 1:50 left. Cal's Ryan Coe missed the kick, and Pitt held on 17-15.
Every fan base deserves to delight in magical runs from time to time. But the teams that remain unbeaten into November usually do so through dominance, not constant clutch play. All six of the Panthers' remaining regular-season games are projected within single digits, per SP+, so maybe they keep up the magic. But that's usually not how this works.
Next test: Week 9 vs. Syracuse
9. Army Black Knights (6-0)
Last week's ranking: 10th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 53rd and 51st
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 4.9%
What the Black Knights did in Week 8: def UAB 44-10
Biggest remaining question: Will the pass defense survive against better QBs? Like Navy, Army's defense has been particularly untested. The Black Knights haven't yet faced a team better than 88th in offensive SP+, which makes it a bit alarming that, with garbage time filtered out, they are 97th in passing success rate allowed and 99th in completion rate allowed. They rarely blitz or generate pressure -- they just form an umbrella, let you make your throw, then swarm and tackle.
This can work as long as the Knights are never missing tackles and continue to play brilliantly in the red zone. But against more solid and patient quarterbacks -- like, say, North Texas' Chandler Morris in Week 11 or Notre Dame's Riley Leonard in Week 13 -- it could be an issue.
Next test: Week 11 at North Texas
10. Navy Midshipmen (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 11th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 73rd and 70th
Odds of reaching 12-0, per SP+: 0.5%
What the Midshipmen did in Week 8: bye
Biggest remaining question: Will the defense hold up? By the "it's how you play, not who you play" rule, Navy's offensive numbers are so good that they should apply even when the Midshipmen play against better defenses, like those of Notre Dame, Army and East Carolina. However, Memphis' offense is the only one the Midshipmen have played that ranks higher than 88th in offensive SP+, and the Tigers scored 44 points and gained 659 yards on them. They give up a few too many big plays to hold true bend-don't-break principles, and while the red zone defense (ninth in red zone touchdown rate allowed) has been a saving grace, Notre Dame, Tulane and Army all have offenses that rank near or ahead of Memphis. Horvath and Co. might have to win a couple more track meets.
Next test: Week 9 vs. Notre Dame
11. Liberty Flames (5-0)
Last week's ranking: 12th
SP+ and FPI rankings: 74th and 97th
Odds of reaching 11-0, per SP+: 20.7%
What the Flames did in Week 8: def. Florida International 31-24 (OT)
Biggest remaining question: Will Liberty begin to look the part at some point? As was the case last season, the Flames have just about the weakest schedule in FBS. Unlike last season, they're not dominating. Against nine teams ranked lower than 90th in SP+ in 2023, they won by an average of 42-22; they've outscored five such teams by an average of 32-21 in regulation this fall. They needed overtime to beat FIU last week. They trailed both East Carolina and an abysmal New Mexico State midway through the fourth quarter. They led a winless UTEP by just 4 late in the third. Despite having a lot of the same offensive players and what seems to be a slightly better defense, this just isn't the same team. And any hopes of entering the CFP conversation, even with an unbeaten record, will require a shift in gears.
Next test: Week 10 vs. Jacksonville State