What a Week 5 it was for this 2024 NFL season! In the first couple of weeks, we thought that passing might be down forever and that every game was just going to be weird and sloppy. I'm pleased to say as we hit October that the football is still good, gang.
That Ravens-Bengals game was wild and gave us an opportunity to look at the future for Cincinnati. That Bills-Texans game was wild and gave us a chance to complain about officiating. I mean, Giants-Seahawks and Cardinals-49ers were also both excellent games, and I didn't even get the chance to talk about those in this space. Here's a good stat from ESPN Research: Forty-seven games this season have been decided by seven or fewer points. That's the most through the first five weeks of a season in NFL history.
Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two, and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. Let's jump in.
Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: Bengals' next steps
Dream deadline: Trades we want to see
Mailbag: Questions from ... you
Second Take: Adams' potential impact on Jets
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 5 stats
Monday Night Mahomes
The Big Thing: What's next for the 1-4 Bengals?
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous Sunday of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?
Joe Burrow played one of the best games of his career on Sunday.
The Ravens' defense threw a lot at him. Blitzers came from all angles, and they won on those rushes, too -- especially in the interior. They played tight to routes and tackled wonderfully in space. Yet Burrow punished them for every tiny ray of sunlight that snuck between the cracks. He hit tight window after tight window, downfield and across the middle, between zones and against man. He was 7-for-7 on third-down dropbacks in the second half, including on third downs of 14 and 10 yards to go to start the third quarter. Nails!
Burrow ended the day 30-for-39 for 392 yards and five scores in the Bengals' 41-38 overtime loss. His EPA per dropback was 0.24, which is the fourth-best number of his 64-game career. His off-target rate was 2.6%, also the fourth-best number of his career. We can pick nits, of course. He took a couple of sacks and threw a critical pick late; I thought he was short on a would-be touchdown to Tee Higgins in the first half, too. I'm sure Burrow, a franchise quarterback and leader in the locker room, is replaying those mistakes in his mind and putting this loss on himself accordingly.
Surely coach Zac Taylor is doing the same. The Bengals weren't running in their four-minute offense during the fourth quarter, and Burrow's pick let the Ravens back into the game. Then, when the Bengals were gifted a game-winning scoring opportunity in overtime, Taylor did run it, and his team settled for a 53-yard field goal that was muffed and subsequently missed. Of course, Burrow checked out of a pass and into a run on that drive, so maybe that's another mistake for Burrow to shoulder.
Parsing blame in the NFL is hard, though. It's the ultimate team sport, and in a game like Sunday's showdown, the margin for error is minuscule. If the Bengals hit that field goal, perhaps I'm writing about a 2-3 Ravens team that lost on a fumbled snap in overtime. But I'm not. I'm writing about the 1-4 Bengals.
The NFL is a merciless competition. There aren't 82 games to sort out the best and worst, as there are in the NBA, or 162 regular-season contests to try out a bunch of lineups, as there are in MLB. The human body can hardly handle the 18 regular-season weeks of the NFL, let alone the postseason. And when you lose one game, you lose ground. A lot of it. When you lose four of your first five, it's nearly insurmountable.
Of the 270 teams to start the season 1-4 in the Super Bowl era, 15 have made the playoffs. That's a 5.6% shot historically -- a number that is a little higher now that a seventh team makes the postseason from each conference, but not much higher.
The most recent 1-4 team to escape its tailspin was Washington in 2020, who won the NFC East at 8-9 -- but that doesn't feel like the path forward for these Bengals, who are two games behind both the Steelers and Ravens with a divisional loss already under their belt. Perhaps a more encouraging data point are the 2018 Colts, who started their season 1-5 before rallying around a star quarterback in Andrew Luck and finishing the season 10-6. Or maybe the 2015 Chiefs, another 1-5 start that ended 11-5 after their young and injured defense started to get healthier and more experienced.
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee why a Davante Adams trade could drag out awhile.
I can argue that the 2024 Bengals are better suited to climb out of this hole than most teams. They've been down here before. The 2022 Bengals started the season 0-2 and were 2-3 with two divisional losses after five weeks. They went 11-1 down the stretch and won their division at 12-4. The 2023 Bengals started the season 1-3. Burrow, who was coming off a summer calf injury, looked particularly poor. But then they caught fire and won four straight. Another Burrow injury derailed that season, and they finished at 9-8.
The fact that Burrow perennially starts slow provides an easy way to dismiss this 1-4 start. Burrow always looks bad in September, and doubly so when he's coming off an injury, as he is this season (recovering from torn ligaments in his throwing wrist). Burrow was a hyper-efficient checkdown artist to start the year, but that wasn't enough against the Patriots or Chiefs. He started to push the ball downfield a little more against the Commanders and Panthers but wasn't all the way back. So this Ravens matchup was the first game in which Burrow looked like Burrow. And if Burrow continues to look like Burrow, the Bengals can drop 35 points on anyone.
Consider this: Burrow enters Week 6 leading the NFL with 12 touchdown passes. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, it's the first time since the 1970 merger that a player with the outright lead in TD passes in Week 6 or later is playing for a team either with the worst record or tied for the worst record in the NFL.
If Sunday proved anything to us, it's that Burrow and the offense cannot win games alone. Since the start of last season, the Bengals' defense is one of the worst in football. It is bottom-five in success rate, EPA, points per drive surrendered and down set conversion rate (how often a first-and-10 becomes a new first-and-10 or touchdown). The Bengals did not force a punt in the entire second half against the Ravens, a half in which they were leading the entire time. They forced just two punts against the Andy Dalton-led Panthers and didn't force a single one against the Commanders in Week 3. In fact, no defense has forced punts at a lower rate this season than Cincinnati (23.5%). Without a turnover, the Bengals' defense can't get off the field.
There's no excuse for this. The only key players missing with injuries have been B.J. Hill (who was back Sunday) and Sheldon Rankins. Those defensive tackles should help the run defense a bit but not solve it outright. Safety Geno Stone didn't solve the Bengals' problems in 2023 vs. explosive offenses after signing in the offseason, and if cornerback Dax Hill had helped to mitigate it, he'll now need to be replaced; he was lost for the season with a torn ACL on Sunday.
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has had a long time to look at this defense since it started to tail off last season. General manager Duke Tobin has drafted a lot of young players to patch the departures from this defense, including Hill, Cam Taylor-Britt, Myles Murphy, Zach Carter, Kris Jenkins Jr. and DJ Turner. Of the Bengals' past nine draft picks in Rounds 1-3, seven have been spent on the defense. I would love to believe big leaps from young players are coming, but I've seen nothing to suggest that. And I would love to claim a schematic innovation could save the roster, but Anarumo has tried everything under the sun. It's tough to find a world where this defense turns things around suddenly and significantly enough to sustain a long winning streak.
When the Bengals made the Super Bowl following the 2021 season, they did so squarely in the rookie quarterback winning window. Burrow, Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase were the offensive nucleus of that team, and they were all making pennies on the dollar. When offensive line issues popped up, the Bengals spent to solve them. The Bengals paid to keep defensive talent in house, too, extending Trey Hendrickson, Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt and Sam Hubbard. They were maximizing the rookie quarterback window.
But the bill comes due for us all. Higgins and Chase both held out of training camp this year in pursuit of new deals, and the Bengals waited them out, clinging desperately to this one final year of a slightly inexpensive winning window. Burrow is hitting the cap for only $29.7 million this year, but that jumps to $46.2 million next season. Chase is hitting the cap for only $9.8 million this year, and that jumps to $28.6 million on the fifth-year option next year (though an extension would theoretically change that number). Higgins is playing on the tag ($21.8 million) and will potentially not even be on the team next season after he hits free agency.
This was the year. This was the final push for the Bengals' trio of stars, the team that finally beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. And suddenly, they're 1-4, and the defense can't hack it. The ending is not a bang but a whimper.
This puts the Bengals in a particularly challenging position. All of their chips are shoved in on Burrow, Chase and Higgins for this season. But next year? The expectation around the league for years now is that Higgins will get out of Cincinnati for a huge payday. He tried to get traded this offseason, but the Bengals kept him for exactly the offensive performance we saw against the Ravens on Sunday: nine catches, 83 yards and two scores. If scoring 38 points isn't going to be enough this season, then the Bengals have to revisit the trade question on Higgins. If he's going out the door no matter what, shouldn't they get something for him before he goes?
Bill Belichick joins Pat McAfee and praises Jayden Daniels' start to his rookie season after the Commanders' win over the Browns.
Higgins would likely sign a deal in 2025 free agency that warrants a third-round compensatory pick, but that's never guaranteed and doesn't impact the team's ability to sign free agents of their own in the 2025 offseason. The wide receiver market should have a ton of action at the deadline, as Raiders WR Davante Adams will almost certainly be dealt. But Higgins is younger and can be a true long-term building block rather than a one-year Band-Aid.
Higgins isn't the only Bengal who requested a trade this offseason. Hendrickson wants a big long-term extension, but again, the Bengals said no this offseason. He's 29 and still playing excellent ball (three sacks this season), but he alone can't save the Bengals' defense. If they are approaching a soft rebuild, they should consider getting a big return on a Hendrickson trade at the deadline, instead of watching him leave in 2026 for maybe a 2027 comp selection. Veteran nickel Mike Hilton has one year left on his deal and can help a contender, too. And Pratt has two years left and can do much the same. Cincinnati has tradeable players up and down the roster.
I'm sure Bengals fans will be furious with these suggestions, and understandably so. No fan base wants to see good players leave. The deadline isn't until Nov. 5, and the Bengals' next four opponents are the Giants, Browns, Eagles and Raiders. If the offense keeps humming and the defense finds any steadiness, the Bengals may well work their way to 5-4, clawing their way back into the playoff picture.
But if that doesn't happen, then the Bengals have to get serious about where they are in the life cycle of their team-building. The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill away, and the Bills traded Stefon Diggs; when your star rookie-contract quarterback starts to hit the cap, sometimes you need him to make do with fewer expensive veteran pass catchers. Those were older players than Higgins, but if Cincinnati isn't willing to pay him (just as the Commanders were not willing to pay Montez Sweat, the Giants were not willing to pay Leonard Williams and the Bears were not willing to pay Roquan Smith), then it has to trade him while the trading's still good.
Of course, the Bengals could still keep Higgins and Chase long term. It's harder now than it would have been if they got a deal done earlier, but it's still possible. It requires a willingness to spend money that the Bengals have never spent, and a cash flow to hit guaranteed figures that they may not have. But they'll still be a loaded offense carrying a struggling defense, and that won't change until another round of picks is spent on defensive personnel. Burrow will be a year older and a year more expensive; so too will his veteran offensive linemen. The margins will continue to grow thinner and thinner.
The Bengals kept Burrow and Chase's rookie contract window wrenched open for as long as they could. It was a good effort, and they got close ... but no cigar. Now the brutal realities of the NFL come crashing down on them. They're teetering on the edge of a soft blow-up and rebuild. The next few weeks will tell us whether they should stay committed or cut their losses. And if they double down when they should really fold, it could have negative repercussions for years to come.
The dream trade deadline
These are the big names I could see on the move at the trade deadline and the moves I want to see happen. (I won't bore you with the fringe roster trades I'm even more avidly rooting to see.) We're a whole month out from the trade deadline, so I'll update once we get closer, too.
Adams to the Bills
Bills get: WR Davante Adams, 2025 sixth-round selection
Raiders get: 2025 second-round selection, 2026 third-round selection (with conditions on playing time/team success)
It seems like the Bills are out on the first round of the Adams trade cycle. That is to say they don't want to take on all of his cap hit, so they'd only be interested if and when the Raiders are willing to swallow some of Adams' money in return for better draft capital.
If and when we get there, Adams is the perfect receiver for Buffalo. Khalil Shakir is the established slot, but a motley crew is currently splitting snaps at the outside. Rookie Keon Coleman has been flashing, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins are not viable options for the high-volume passing attack that the Bills needed to deploy the past two weeks. Adams brings a lot of what Stefon Diggs brought -- reliable separation against top corners, sure hands and downfield route running -- on a clean slate.
Adam Schefter breaks down what went into the Jets' decision in firing Robert Saleh in the middle of the season.
Lions land Walker
Lions get: Edge Travon Walker
Jaguars get: 2025 fourth-round selection, 2026 fourth-round selection
The Jaguars got their first win of the season Sunday and may still be subtracting when the trade deadline comes. Walker, the first overall pick in 2022, has had two splashy games this season and three complete blanks otherwise. He still hasn't quite figured it out with the Jaguars, but he has done enough (five sacks this season) to still fetch a solid pick or two in return.
I know how the Lions would use him: a big base end mashing against the run and pushing the pocket opposite Aidan Hutchinson (who incidentally was taken one selection after Walker in that '22 draft). That was the plan for Marcus Davenport, who was lost for the season with a torn triceps in Week 4. And John Cominsky, who was supposed to be a key rotational player, is also out for the year (knee). The Lions are worryingly thin at defensive end.
Chiefs add Kirk
Chiefs get: WR Christian Kirk
Jaguars get: WR Skyy Moore, 2025 fourth-round selection, 2026 sixth-round selection
I think the Chiefs should and will add a receiver at the deadline. But which one? I would be looking for a sure-handed WR who can line up everywhere and move the sticks -- that's who the Chiefs, with their league-low depth of target, need to make this patient offense work.
As such, Kirk (257 receiving yards, 1 TD this season) should be one of their first options. He has a great feel for routes and space, so he'd work well with Mahomes early on. And he still has more downfield juice than he's given credit for at 28 years old. If Brian Thomas Jr. continues to emerge for the Jaguars, I think either Kirk or tight end Evan Engram will be on the move for the Jaguars.
Jets, Cardinals swap defenders
Jets get: S Budda Baker
Cardinals get: Edge Haason Reddick
I pitched this in September, and I'm pitching it again. Baker is a great fit for Robert Saleh's defense, which doesn't really need safety help but can find room for Baker as a blitzer, slot player and traditional quarters safety. This trade would send Reddick back to Jonathan Gannon, as he peaked in Gannon's defense in Philadelphia a few years back. The Cardinals are in desperate need of pass rush help.
But mostly, this is about getting Reddick onto a team that will pay him and sending Baker (who has been the subject of trade speculation for a while now) somewhere before he leaves in free agency. Just good business on both sides.
Higgins to Washington
Commanders get: Bengals WR Tee Higgins
Bengals get: 2025 third-round selection, 2026 third-round selection (with conditions on production)
One of the biggest sellers at last year's deadline should be one of the most aggressive buyers at this year's deadline. With rookie QB Jayden Daniels looking like the real deal, the Commanders can now aggressively spend to build a contending team and maximize his rookie contract window. Higgins is awesome on those vertical one-on-ones that are a huge part of Daniels' game and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's offense, and he brings a size dimension that's currently lacking on the Commanders' receiving corps.
And critically, the Commanders have the cap space to pay Higgins the enormous contract he is absolutely due. Getting Higgins gives them the certainty that their WR room is ready to sustain a playoff run, instead of spending early on a rookie and hoping they hit while Daniels is still young and cheap.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Justin: "Would love your thoughts on why C.J. Stroud, Bobby Slowik and the Texans are 31st in first- and second-down efficiency, and second in third- and fourth-down. How do they fix this to avoid being another Texans team to lose in the divisional round?"
There's a few things going on. The first is the ankle injury to Joe Mixon, which has really hurt their rushing success rate overall. The second is a philosophical approach. The Texans are third in the league in called run rate over expectation on second-and-long, as both Slowik and coach DeMeco Ryans believe in getting to a third-and-manageable. They just have been very bad at actually getting to third-and-manageable because, well, the Mixon injury.
Another issue is early-down penalties. No team will look good on first or second downs of longer than 10 yards, as they immediately pass on chunk plays and look to just get in the range of third-and-doable. Houston is tied with the Seahawks for the most early-down plays of 11-plus yards to go this season, which makes them stack up far worse against those offenses facing much more regular down and distances.
How to fix it? When Mixon gets back and the penalties get cleaned up, the Texans have to check their work. If they're still facing huge third-and-long distances, it might be time to let Stroud drop back on second-and-10. I'd rather he have two cracks at getting 10 yards than one crack at getting 8.
From Ian: "What is it that is making the Broncos' defense work so well? And is it sustainable for the rest of the season?"
This secondary is unbelievable. Pat Surtain II is the best corner in football, but Riley Moss also looks like a bonafide CB1 through five weeks. And Ja'Quan McMillian is an excellent slot. I did not realize that Jim Leonhard had joined the staff as a secondary coach this offseason, but when I saw that, the success of this back seven suddenly became a lot clearer; he's an excellent coach.
I am usually very dubious of teams that play this much man coverage (46%, second most in the league) surviving long-term because you really need elite cover men across the board to get it done. Considering how young Moss and McMillian are, I'm still expecting a step back at some point. But man, I am loving what I'm seeing. This defense is going to keep the Broncos in the playoff race all season and give quarterback Bo Nix a long runway for development, much like the Bears' D is doing for Caleb Williams.
From Antonio: "Why is every fourth start by Daniel Jones annoyingly enticing? This guy just loves to throw in a random great game after everyone is done with him. Where is this coming from?"
Because Brian Daboll is still really good at scheming it up. Don't take the cheese. (But what if Jones is actually good, though?)
Second Take: Davante Adams can't save the Jets
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view. Note: This section was updated after the Robert Saleh firing Tuesday.
The Jets spent this offseason adding mercenaries. They had an offensive line problem, so they solved it with veterans. Tyron Smith is in Year 14, is past his prime and hasn't played a full season since 2015, but he was clearly the best left tackle option on the market. Right tackle Morgan Moses, meanwhile, is a plug-and-play option in his 11th year as a pro and made sense on the other side. And that WR2 role? Why not grab Mike Williams on a short-term deal?
The theory behind this approach on offense was sound. All of the Jets' chips were in on the Aaron Rodgers bet -- that the 40-year-old quarterback could still be elite coming off an Achilles tear. They didn't have time to develop rookies at receiver and offensive tackle. Betting on youngsters to improve over the course of a full season might have resulted in the last year of Rodgers' career going down the drain.
But Jets GM Joe Douglas did something very wise: He drafted those rookies anyway, including first-round tackle Olu Fashanu, third-round receiver Malachi Corley, fourth-round running back Braelon Allen and fifth-round running back Isaiah Davis. The Jets built for right now with urgency to justify and maximize the Rodgers trade, but they also kept some capital to build for the future. Maybe those rookies would end up being early contributors, like Allen has been over five weeks. Maybe injuries in front of them would force those rookies into starting roles, as has been the case with Fashanu. And maybe those rookies wouldn't be ready at all, as has been the case with Corley. But at least Douglas would have multiple bets at every position.
Now the Jets are 2-3. The offense is not working. They're 19th in success rate and 22nd in EPA per play. Rodgers dropped back 54 times against the Vikings, completed only 29 of those passes for 244 yards (4.5 yards per attempt, which is gnarly) and threw three interceptions to two touchdowns. Star wide receiver Garrett Wilson had 13 catches on a whopping 22 targets for 101 yards, which is the second-fewest yards that a receiver has ever totaled on 20-plus targets.
The first five games of the season have left me wondering whether Rodgers has a peak season left in him. Sometimes he looks as if he has enough mobility to create magic outside of structure, but not always. There are flashes of arm strength to hit challenging throws off-platform, but it's not consistent. The Jets' entire offseason was committed to filling the cupboards for Rodgers so he could achieve his old form. I'm just not convinced that old form is left in Rodgers' game.
I wonder whether Robert Saleh had the same doubts. The Jets coach was fired early Tuesday morning amid the disappointing start. This is quite early in the season for a head-coach firing, but Saleh and Rodgers were already trading barbs in front of microphones. Saleh suggested the Jets manipulate the cadence less to avoid pre-snap penalties on offense, while Rodgers suggested that offensive players need to be held accountable for their mistakes rather than coddled with an easier cadence.
The firing of Saleh points to the Jets doubling down on Rodgers -- on the idea that if the team caters even further to him philosophically and structurally, then he can yank the Jets out of their tailspin. And we'll know more about the Jets' commitment to Rodgers if they bring one final mercenary in to form his ideal offense: wide receiver Davante Adams.
The disillusioned Raiders wideout is almost certain to be traded in the near future, as he's nursing a hamstring injury while waiting for the Raiders to ship him off to a different squad. Adams is 31 but has had over 100 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past four seasons. He still has some good ball in him. He is technically signed through 2026, but with enormous base salaries in 2025 and 2026, he is eminently cuttable after this season.
But is he enough to turn the offense around? The final Infinity Stone that will return Rodgers to 2021 MVP status? I find that challenging to believe. In New York, Adams would be funneled all those short targets that Wilson gets, and although Adams might get open more reliably, he hasn't had the juice after the catch that Wilson does in quite some time. The Jets' offense will remain slow and methodical. And what will become of Wilson, a top-10 pick who has shown tremendous promise? Does he become a field-stretching WR2 in Adams' presence? Because I cannot be convinced that Rodgers would actually target him more than he'd target Allen Lazard, whom he clearly prefers and trusts more.
Adams cannot elicit something from Rodgers that simply isn't there anymore. Pretty much all the pushing-40 quarterbacks we've seen over the past decade had to dramatically change how they played to account for diminishing physical traits. Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan ... all of these guys had to start throwing the ball earlier and shallower to account for their lack of arm strength and pocket mobility. (Tom Brady, maddeningly, was somehow immune to the weight of age.) This is happening to Rodgers. His time to throw is the lowest it has ever been, his pressure rate is higher and his air yards per attempt are down.
The Jets are still building around the idea of a return of Rodgers and not the reality of the quarterback they have now. Rodgers is elite at the line of scrimmage and before the ball is snapped. If the Jets were to turn into the skid, they could surround Rodgers with YAC playmakers who could make this version of Rodgers work, rather than his pals from a few years ago. Call the Broncos about Marvin Mims Jr. See how much the Giants like Wan'Dale Robinson. Activate Corley and take your rookie lumps. Or hey, run an offense that gets Wilson the ball on the move!
Adams is a great player, and I have no doubt that if (or when) he joins the Jets, he'd have a positive effect. There will be a few peak weeks, as Rodgers and Adams beat up on a bad defense or two. But this offense is far, far too easy to get stuck in the mud, and that's because there's a 40-year-old playing QB. The Jets are committed, and I don't fault them at all for the Adams trade they're about to make. I just don't think it's going to work out the way they hope.
If and when the Adams domino falls for the Jets, we'll learn a lot more about the Saleh firing. If Adams becomes a Jet just hours after Saleh was let go, it will seem all the more as if Saleh was putting his foot down on the mercenary approach and trying to cling to whatever power he still held as the head coach in the face of a notoriously opinionated franchise quarterback. Maybe Saleh and I are both wrong and Adams really can save the Jets. But I never have a lot of faith in a personnel move that can be made only once the coach is fired five weeks into the season.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
323: That's how many days it has been since the Bears surrendered more than 21 points. It was Week 11 of last season, when they gave up 31 points to the Lions. With 4:15 left, Detroit still had 14 points, too: two late-game touchdown drives (and a bonus safety) made the difference.
That was an embarrassing finish to what should have been a great game for the Bears' defense, but it fired them up, and they haven't looked back since then. In the 13 games since they acquired Montez Sweat at last year's trade deadline, the Bears are the league's top defense by EPA per play. At the end of last season, there were concerns with the quality of offense the Bears' defense faced over the late-season run; those concerns remain this season but are starting to subside. They played great ball against both Stroud and Matthew Stafford. Andy Dalton had the Panthers' offense humming through his first two weeks on the starting job, and Carolina hit a brick wall in Chicago on Sunday.
There are only a couple of defenses every year that are good enough to stymie Super Bowl-caliber offenses, and good enough to win a playoff game while the other team holds the ball. I think the Bears are one of those units. And the Bears' offense might finally be coming around the corner after an explosive day against the Panthers, though I need to see a lot more of it and against tougher defenses.
Their next opponent? The 1-4 Jaguars, who might be rejuvenated but probably aren't. Then Chicago has a bye week. Then it travels to Washington, where rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and his record-setting offense await. Mark your calendars.
22.15 miles per hour: That's how fast Jaguars rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. ran on his 85-yard touchdown against the Colts on Sunday, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's the fastest time of any ball carrier so far this season.
In Week 5, the Jaguars' offense finally looked something like what we were hoping to see, dropping 37 points on a depleted Colts defense en route to their first win. Trevor Lawrence was pressured on exactly two passing attempts. He got a rid of the ball quickly, threw a few passes at or near the line of scrimmage and actually got some yards after the catch accordingly -- but most of the YAC came on Thomas' enormous catch-and-run in the first quarter.
Thomas isn't making the same headlines that Malik Nabers -- his former LSU teammate -- is in New York, as he doesn't get the same target share. But Thomas has over 200 yards and two scores on 11 catches in the past two weeks, both against divisional rivals. His 18 yards per reception rank fourth in the league right now. I think there's a new WR1 in Jacksonville.
1 out of 4: That's how many intentional grounding penalties I actually understand. Look, I hate to be the guy who picks on refereeing errors (suddenly, a lie detector starts vibrating wildly in the background), but I really don't get how Stroud was called for intentional grounding late in the Texans' win over the Bills. Everyone watching thought that he and tight end Dalton Schultz miscommunicated on a route, and anyone who thinks otherwise is a Bills fan or team employee.
Here's the Stroud throw, for comparison pic.twitter.com/FoGmoKPWLB
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 6, 2024
This is unintentional grounding. It happens sometimes, and by sometimes, I mean all the time. Quarterbacks miscommunicate with receivers, who are reading coverages live on the field and adjusting their routes. Balls land nowhere near receivers. It happens constantly in average game states, and it doesn't get called.
Yet this one was called. Why? Because it was a critical play, and on those plays, referees are keyed up. Because this would be the absolute worst play on which Stroud could take a sack -- the Texans were in fringe field goal range in a tie game with 44 seconds left -- referees are far more cognizant to potential lost-yardage and loss-of-down penalties than they would be otherwise.
This ended up not being the biggest deal, because the Bills gave the game back to the Texans by throwing the ball three times from inside their 10-yard line. (What?! Why?!) But that doesn't change how bad the call was in the moment. Intentional grounding is in the rulebook to prevent QBs from escaping dead-to-rights sacks by randomly heaving the football from the pocket; what Stroud did here was a totally standard football play.
And before Bills fans get mad at me, just remember: You got hosed by a similar intentional grounding last season.
Monday night Mahomes
Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from "Monday Night Football" and break down what it means for the rest of the season.
I don't know what to say about the Chiefs anymore. I was so confident in last week's column that this offense was finally going to collapse following the absence of Rashee Rice (as multiple Chiefs fans rightfully reminded me in my inbox). I could not see a world where Patrick Mahomes -- yes, even Mahomes -- made it work with JuJu Smith-Schuster catching passes in 2024.
Well against the Saints on Monday, Smith-Schuster had 130 receiving yards, his most since a postseason game in the 2020 season for the Steelers. Another Chiefs retread, Kareem Hunt, had 102 rushing yards on 27 carries, his most since a 2020 game for the Browns. The Chiefs moved to 5-0 with a 26-13 win.
How are the Chiefs turning back the clock like this? No other team gets to do this: plugging in familiar but over-the-hill veterans on quick turnarounds and get immediate production. No team gets to do it because no other team has the quarterback, I suppose. It all comes back to Mahomes.
Mahomes was sensational on Monday night in that weird sort of midcareer Mahomes way. He threw mostly shallow, then occasionally launched a javelin to Xavier Worthy. He threw underneath early in the down to maximize yards after the catch and threw underneath late in the down after distorting the defense by moving the launch point. And of course, he had a preposterous scramble or two.
Mahomes with a little magic 🪄
— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2024
📺: #NOvsKC on ESPN
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/CrEejvSThX
Previously, we described Mahomes' greatness by what he achieved; now, we describe it by what he has become and overcome. The laws of physics and football didn't apply to Mahomes early in his career; now the laws of team-building and injury obstacles don't apply to him in his prime. I should never have doubted him, and I'll never make that mistake again. (I'm sure I'll make it again within the month.)