Which current NBA players who aren't part of this year's NBArank top 100 have the best chance of joining the list next season?
Inevitably, there is substantial turnover in the top 100 from year to year. Not counting the three rookies on the list (Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and 2022 draft pick Chet Holmgren, who missed all of last season due to injury), 13 players have moved from out of 2022's NBArank onto this year's list.
To find players who could follow in the footsteps of this group, which is highlighted by first-time All-Star Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz and also includes Brook Lopez, Austin Reaves and Franz Wagner, I've grouped potential candidates into three categories.
Some players simply should have been on this year's list but weren't voted in by the panel of ESPN NBA analysts. Others were on the list a year ago but fell out in what might have been an overreaction to their play, like Lopez a year ago. And by far the largest group is rising young players such as Reaves and Wagner whose development moves them into the top 100.
Let's take a look at who might follow each of these paths.
The omissions
The comparison between Claxton and Jarrett Allen, his predecessor as Brooklyn's starting center, suggests relatively similar 2022-23 seasons. Per 36 minutes, the players averaged similar points (15.7 for Allen, 15.2 for Claxton) and rebounds (11.1 for Claxton and 10.8 for Allen). Claxton led the NBA by shooting 70% from the field, better than Allen's 64%, and more than doubled his blocks per 36 (3.0 to 1.4) en route to finishing third among centers in All-Defensive voting. Allen's track record as an All-Star in 2021-22, before Claxton had established himself as a starter, gives him the nod. Still, if Allen is comfortably in the top 100, Claxton belongs there too.
Kevin Huerter, Sacramento Kings
It seems the voting panel put heavy weight on the playoffs, when the Golden State Warriors denied Huerter's off-ball actions and he went 8-of-39 (20.5%) from downtown. Before then, Huerter's marksmanship was a key reason Sacramento ended a 16-season playoff drought. In a record-setting offense that leveraged his shooting ability in frequent two-man actions with Domantas Sabonis, Huerter averaged a career-high 15.2 PPG and ranked in the NBA's top 20 in 3-pointers. At 25, the arrow should still be pointing up for Huerter.
The single most glaring omission from the top 100, White had a case as the most important player on last season's Celtics outside of stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. With White on the court, Boston outscored opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats, which dropped to 1.3 without him. While White did benefit from weaker opponent shooting on 3s in his minutes, he also played a key role in that differential with his career-high 38% 3-point shooting and secondary playmaking on a team badly in need of it. There's a better case for White as one of the NBA's top 50 players than outside the top 100.
The bounce-backs
Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets
The end of Brooks' tenure with the Memphis Grizzlies left a sour taste between his off-court trash talk and a hail of missed shots in the Grizzlies' first-round loss to the Los Angeles Lakers -- he shot just 10-of-42 (24%) from 3-point range and 31% overall. As a result, Brooks went from No. 77 a year ago to off the list. His dominant defense and timely 3-point shooting in Canada's bronze-medal run in the FIBA Basketball World Cup reminded observers what Brooks brings to the table, and he's got a chance to do the same after joining the Rockets on a lucrative new contract.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets
As the second-highest ranked player in 2022 (No. 69) to fall off the list, Dinwiddie didn't age out like the only player ahead of him, 37-year-old Kyle Lowry (No. 60). Admittedly, Dinwiddie's ranking was probably inflated a year ago by his role in the Dallas Mavericks' run to the conference finals. Nonetheless, he was as effective as ever last season and has a chance to reprove his value with a full season in Brooklyn.
The rising stars
The top of the 2022 draft is a natural place to look for developing young talents who could leap onto the list. Both Ivey and his Detroit teammate Jalen Duren have a chance to take a step forward in Year 2 with the return of 2021 top pick Cade Cunningham putting them in more favorable situations. Among rookies who played at least 1,000 minutes last season, only No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero had a higher usage rate than Ivey (25%), who inevitably struggled with turnovers and low shooting percentages. Playing off Cunningham should help Ivey improve in those areas.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
Murphy might have made this year's list if not for meniscus surgery, which is expected to sideline him at least the first month of the regular season. Having bumped his scoring average from 5.4 PPG as a rookie to 14.5 in Year 2 while shooting 41% from 3-point range, Murphy is on a similar development track as Nets forward Cam Johnson, who made his NBArank debut this season.
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Murray landing in the top 100 ahead of his rookie season was likely irrational exuberance. Few first-year players actually prove so valuable, as was the case with Murray, but he more than held his own in a 3-and-D role on a playoff team. Year 2 could see Murray increase his scoring load after he put up 41 points in 31 minutes in front of home fans during the California Classic summer league.
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Like Murray, Smith looked too good for summer league in Las Vegas, scoring a combined 67 points over the last three halves he played for the Rockets while also filling out the stat sheet as my pick for the best veteran player in action. Like Ivey, Smith is poised for dramatic improvement after a slow start to his NBA career. He shot just 49% on 2s and 31% on 3s as a rookie but should be put in better spots to score as well as take advantage of his defensive versatility thanks to Houston adding both Brooks and Fred VanVleet this summer.
Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs
There's a case to be made that Vassell, who recently signed a five-year extension to his rookie contract, belonged in this year's top 100 after averaging 18.5 PPG and 3.6 APG while shooting 39% from 3-point range. I can understand the desire to see Vassell prove it, given that production came over just 38 games (due to arthroscopic knee surgery in January) on the NBA's worst team in terms of point differential. As Vassell continues to add playmaking to the 3-and-D skill set with which he entered the league, more eyes on the Spurs and No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama should help him join next year's NBArank.