Because it's October, everything in the baseball world is cranked to 11, from the stakes to the drama to the intrigue. So, too, are our reactions to everything that happens, and sometimes those sensitivities need a reality check.
With two rounds of Major League Baseball's 2024 postseason in the books, it's a perfect time to assess the state of the teams still fighting for a World Series berth as well as those whose opportunities expired in recent days.
Let's look at a few overreactions from the MLB playoffs so far and judge if they are legitimate or irrational.
It's now the Dodgers and then everybody else
Los Angeles romped in Game 1 of the NLCS, a 9-0 victory against the New York Mets that extended Dodgers pitchers' scoreless-inning streak to 33. That tied the postseason record set by the Baltimore Orioles in the 1966 World Series. On top of that, the Dodgers' offensive stars performed, with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman each logging a pair of hits, a run and an RBI.
The Dodgers finished the regular season with the best record in MLB. The best player on the planet hits leadoff for them. For the last 24 innings of their division series with the San Diego Padres, who were arguably the most talented team in the postseason and seemingly best built for October, the Dodgers shut them out. The American League has played like the Junior Circuit this season -- the National League went 369-321 in interleague play -- and the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have far greater flaws than the Dodgers do. And as good as the Mets have looked, Game 1 of this NLCS looked like a varsity squad toying with the JV.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Don't get it twisted. The Dodgers are very good, and they look to be finding themselves at the right time. Despite losing eight starting pitchers to injuries this season, they have more than managed with Jack Flaherty (whose seven scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Mets was among the best starts of this postseason), Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler as their lone starters.
But there is no great team this postseason. Less than a week ago, the Dodgers were facing elimination against the Padres. Freeman is limited because of his bad ankle. The relief pitching, as excellent as it has been, is vulnerable. Someone like the Mets' Game 2 starter, Sean Manaea, can give a lineup like the Dodgers' fits.
Because of its series win against a very strong Padres team and the impressive nature of its Game 1 win, Los Angeles is probably the favorite to win the World Series at this point. But the Dodgers and everyone else? Nah. At least not yet.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are not built for October
Judge went 2-for-13 with five walks in the New York Yankees' division series win against the Kansas City Royals. His only extra-base hit, a double, came in the final game. Over 216 plate appearances in seven postseasons, Judge is hitting .207/.316/.446 with one home run every 14 at-bats. In the regular season, Judge's career slash line is .288/.406/.604 and he has homered every 11 at-bats.
We don't have nearly as much of a postseason sample size by which to measure Ohtani. In his first postseason series, he went 4-for-20 with a .623 OPS and 10 strikeouts against the Padres. Ohtani looked more like himself in NLCS Game 1 against the Mets though. He hit a hard RBI single, punished another ball off the wall and drew a walk in Game 1 of the NLCS.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The two best hitters in 2024 are built to hit baseballs regardless of the month. The notion that the calendar turns to October and suddenly their opulent carriages turn into pumpkins is ludicrous.
Now, let's be clear: October baseball is different. The stakes are higher, the pressure profound, the need to be the guy even more acute than usual. The idea that even the best hitters in the world are entirely immune to this is absurd. They aren't because no one is.
But to suggest that stakes and pressure and the need to be the guy are unique to October is to not understand what Judge and Ohtani go through on a daily basis. They live this life every day. What makes them so great is that they feel it, understand it, embrace it and turn it into rocket fuel. They don't just deal with the weight of the world. They hoist it on their shoulders and rep it out.
The Mets' mojo has expired
Neither of the Mets' previous postseason losses came close to resembling the shellacking the Dodgers laid on them Sunday night. In the wild-card series, Milwaukee took Game 2 5-3. In the division series, Philadelphia needed a walk-off from Nick Castellanos to take their only game 7-6.
It's fair, then, to wonder if the Dodgers are simply the sort of juggernaut that will put an end to all the good vibes -- OMG and Grimace and team-of-destiny talk -- and remind the world that the Mets aren't supposed to be here because they're not on the Dodgers' level.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Haven't we seen this before? With the 0-5 start? The 24-35 record? The sweep at Seattle? The deficit against the Braves? And the Brewers? And the Phillies? This is what the Mets do. They erode belief, only to earn it back through really good baseball.
One game does not end that. The Dodgers are likely to go with a bullpen game Monday, and as much of a problem as facing someone new every time up can pose -- just ask the Padres after Game 4 of their division series -- the Mets have taken professional at-bats for months, and the notion that they're going to fold after fighting is a giant leap that history would suggest is not worth taking.
It's better to have a hot closer than a great one
Or perhaps better put: Who ya got, Luke Weaver or Emmanuel Clase?
Weaver's excellence since taking over as the New York Yankees' closer in early September is impossible to deny. In his past 15⅓ innings pitched (including 4⅓ scoreless innings in the Yankees' four division series games), Weaver has allowed six hits and three walks and struck out 29 hitters. A 31-year-old right-hander, he throws three plus pitches -- fastball, changeup, cutter -- and, perhaps best of all, can work multiple innings at a time with no issues.
Clase was the best reliever in baseball this season -- and, one could argue, for the past three years. This year, he posted a microscopic 0.61 ERA over 74⅓ innings for Cleveland. He throws two pitches: a cutter that sits at 100 mph and a slider he can run up to 94. He also allowed nearly as many earned runs in Cleveland's division series against Detroit (4) as he did the entire regular season (5).
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This is nothing against Weaver. He has been a revelation at the back end of the Yankees' bullpen, which went 15⅔ innings without allowing a run in the division series. Manager Aaron Boone went into September unsure of what the back end of his bullpen would look like when games mattered the most. Weaver has more than answered that question.
At the same time, doubt Clase at your peril. His cutter might be the best pitch in baseball, and while Kerry Carpenter proved that it can be beaten with a three-run home run that broke a scoreless tie in Game 2 of the division series, it's still 100 with movement. On top of that, Clase can go multiple innings as well -- he closed out the ALDS with a six-out save -- and the control issues that plague other closers are nonexistent with him. If the Guardians are three outs away from clinching a game, Clase is better than anyone at getting them.
The Phillies' window is showing signs of closing
The regression of the Phillies over the last two Octobers is alarming. After reaching the World Series in 2022, Philadelphia blew a 3-2 lead with two home losses in the 2023 NLCS, and this year it couldn't even make it out of the division round against a team from its own division that it beat by six games in the regular season.
While the Phillies have reinforcements coming from the minor leagues -- right-hander Andrew Painter, who has missed almost two years after Tommy John surgery, looked tremendous in his first Arizona Fall League start, and third baseman Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford, both 20, aren't far off -- the big league roster is aging. The Phillies will have seven core players already in their 30s on Opening Day next season: J.T. Realmuto and Zack Wheeler (34), Nick Castellanos (33), Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper (32) and Aaron Nola and Trea Turner (31).
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Phillies need some changes, and teams loaded with pricey, aging veterans are often the most difficult ones to change. This is not to suggest the Phillies would be better without Harper or Wheeler or Schwarber or Turner or Nola. On the contrary, they were -- and will be -- the heart of this team.
But when a team is loaded with players in their 30s, the precipice of the cliff is nearer than it might seem. The Phillies recognize that, and the winter ahead will reflect it.
This is just the first of many October trips for the Tigers
Detroit's surprising run to the cusp of the ALCS was one of the great stories of the 2024 season. The Tigers shipped out four veterans at the deadline -- including Jack Flaherty, whose 3.17 ERA ranked 13th this season among qualified starting pitchers -- and got better. Most exciting is the ages of their players.
Tarik Skubal: 28
Matt Vierling: 28
Kerry Carpenter: 27
Casey Mize: 27
Justyn-Henry Malloy: 25
Parker Meadows: 25
Reese Olson: 25
Wenceel Perez: 25
Spencer Torkelson: 25
Riley Greene: 24
Jace Jung: 24
Trey Sweeney: 24
Colt Keith: 23
Jackson Jobe: 22
That's more than half the roster -- and doesn't even include a number of high-performing relief pitchers -- in their 20s.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Considering the Tigers play in the ascendant AL Central, there could be bumps in the road. Cleveland is young, too -- and just beat the Tigers to reach the ALCS. Kansas City made the postseason and has youth on its side, too. Minnesota will rebound.
Still, the prospect of a rotation with Skubal, Jobe, Olson and Mize is tantalizing, and even before the playoff run, the Tigers intended to spend this winter. Add top prospects such as outfielder Max Clark and shortstop Kevin McGonigle to the mix -- they should arrive in 2026 -- and the Tigers are going to be loaded with young talent for years to come. The last time manager A.J. Hinch had a collection similar to this, Houston made the ALCS its annual stomping grounds.
The Padres weren't beaten by a better team, they just blew it
San Diego had two opportunities to clinch its division series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it didn't score a run in either game. The combined offensive efforts from the Padres against five innings of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and 13 innings of bullpen work: 9-for-62, two extra-base hits, 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, zero stolen bases.
While San Diego's strength was supposed to be its bullpen, Los Angeles' cadre of relievers outperformed the Padres'. San Diego's offense was seemingly tailor-made for the playoffs, with its lack of swing-and-miss and ability to put up crooked numbers, yet it was the Dodgers' hitters -- particularly in an eight-run Game 4 outburst -- who met the moment.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This was the Padres' year. They had the starting pitching, the bullpen and the offense. They had the momentum in the series, too, winning Game 3 and delivering an opportunity to clinch their second consecutive postseason series win against the Dodgers. And they're now left to contend with the fallout from a failure that won't go away any time soon.
Baseball is a frustrating, maddening sport in that way. Put together a team with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado. Add Luis Arraez, Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. It should be a winning formula. Such are the vagaries of a five-game series.
San Diego will be back. Not with Jurickson Profar at $1 million and Kyle Higashioka at just over $2 million -- two of the best bargains in 2024. Not with Joe Musgrove, either, after Tommy John surgery. But a full year of Tatis and Merrill in his age-21 season and Michael King on the upswing and most of the bullpen still intact means another shot at the postseason will come sooner rather than later, and when it does, the Padres can only hope 2024 taught them how to avoid a repeat of this year's ending.
Bobby Witt Jr. missed his chance to impress in the postseason
In just about any other season, the Royals' superstar shortstop would have won AL MVP -- the list of players with more than 10 wins above replacement who didn't capture any hardware is short and distinguished. If Judge is the best hitter in baseball and Ohtani the best player, Witt is the most well-rounded everyday talent, with his ability to hit for average and power, his game-breaking speed and his Gold Glove at shortstop.
Then he disappeared in the division series against the Yankees. After logging game-winning RBIs in each of Kansas City's two wild-card series games, Witt managed only a pair of hits in 17 ALDS at-bats. In total, he had more strikeouts (6) than hits (5) this postseason -- and didn't have an extra-base hit in six games.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Witt is 24. And because the Royals are owned by John Sherman and not Arte Moreno, the likelihood of him being a 10-win player who makes the postseason just once -- a la Mike Trout -- is minimal. He'll get another shot at this.
That said, the Royals need more bats, and the easiest place to look is the outfield. In 2,316 plate appearances this season, their outfielders had a combined .282 weighted on-base average -- the worst figure in the sport. Hitters either need to slug or get on base, and Kansas City's did neither. And as much baserunning and defensive acumen as they might have, the lack of any offensive production is simply untenable.
The good news for Kansas City is that corner outfielders will be available in free agency -- Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O'Neill, Max Kepler and Profar are potential targets -- and the Royals spent intelligently enough in free agency last winter to position themselves for a postseason run. Getting to play with Witt, Salvador Perez, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Vinnie Pasquantino, and for a manager like Matt Quatraro, should be appealing enough to make the interest with top bats mutual.