Editor's note: Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark was a near-unanimous pick for WNBA Rookie of the Year, the league announced on Oct. 3.
The most anticipated regular season for WNBA rookies reaches its conclusion this week, with the final games taking place Thursday. Some of those rookies will be extending their seasons into the first round of the playoffs -- and possibly beyond -- while others will begin an offseason of recovering from injuries and working on their games.
Either way, it was a banner season for first-year stars, who earned 11.4% of all minutes leaguewide and produced a handful of the WNBA's top players -- on top of immediately providing arguably the league's two most popular players, Caitlin Clark of the Indiana Fever and Angel Reese of the Chicago Sky.
How better to conclude the race for the WNBA's Rookie of the Year than to compile one last set of rankings for 2024's debut crop?
As always, this list is purely based on advanced statistical measures of player value, taking a cross-section of popular metrics to provide a consensus estimate of how many wins each rookie added to their teams. The metrics being blended are Basketball-Reference's win shares (WS); estimated wins added from player efficiency rating (PER); and wins generated via estimated RAPTOR, a plus/minus-type measure that mixes a player's box score production with how she affects her team's net rating while she's in the game.
By looking at all three numbers through Sept. 16, we get an overall snapshot of what the "sabermetric" stats think of each player's performance -- if not their potential going forward (which is different). We'll also list each player's percentile ratings on a 0-100 scale relative to the league, in the following categories: scoring (based on points per 100 possessions), true shooting percentage (self-explanatory), passing (based on assist rate), rebounding (using total rebound percentage) and defensive impact (based on both RAPTOR and defensive rating).
And with all of that out of the way, here are our final rookie rankings of 2024 (among players who have played at least 10 minutes per team game this season):
1. Caitlin Clark, G, Indiana Fever
Last ranked: No. 2 | Draft pick: No. 1 (Iowa)
Win shares: 3.0 | PER wins: 5.2 | RAPTOR wins: 4.2 | Consensus: 4.1
Fever (and Hawkeye) fans, rejoice! Clark has taken over the No. 1 ranking among rookies according to the consensus of the advanced metrics.
Since returning from the All-Star and Olympic break, Clark has been one of the league's most productive players, averaging 32.5 points per 100 possessions on 60.0% true shooting with a 39.7% assist rate, a 21.6% turnover rate and a plus-3.9 offensive estimated RAPTOR -- all massive improvements over her season-to-date numbers from before the break:
Clark's vastly improved turnover rate is especially impressive to see, as that had been perhaps the single biggest reason the metrics were comparatively down on her earlier in the season. While research showed that the narrative among some -- that Clark's brilliant passes were dropped by fumbling teammates -- was almost entirely a myth, she has dramatically cut down on the giveaways while improving her output of passes leading to teammate buckets.
The result has been a vastly improved Fever attack that went from No. 6 in the league (averaging a pedestrian 103.5 points per 100 possessions) to No. 1 (far above the league norm at 111.1). A more efficient Clark has changed the entire complexion of Indiana's offense.
As an aside, Clark was also already in pretty interesting company among high-scoring players whose reputations -- and the eye test -- outpaced their advanced metrics. At various different points in their NBA careers, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Antoine Walker (among others; this is just in the analytics era) showed up lower on purely stat-driven lists than their perceptions would suggest.
There's still debate about how basketball stats ought to contextualize high-usage players -- and unfortunately, those players tend to also be the ones nobody can debate rationally. But to Clark's credit, she has made it to the top of the analytics-driven list a lot faster than any of those other lightning rods, a place where she could stay for a long time.
What's next? Clark's Fever will enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, most likely matched up with the Connecticut Sun at No. 3. Indiana will encounter one of the league's best defenses, which will put the Fever's recent offensive surge to the test. The Sun held Clark to 16.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game with a 30.4% turnover rate in their head-to-head meetings this season.
2. Angel Reese, F, Chicago Sky
Last ranked: No. 1 | Draft pick: No. 7 (LSU)
Win shares: 2.8 | PER wins: 3.9 | RAPTOR wins: 3.2 | Consensus: 3.3
Reese's debut season ended prematurely after she had surgery to repair a broken left wrist, stopping her run of double-digit rebounding games at 28 in a row and leaving her with a rookie-record 26 double-doubles that ended up two shy of Alyssa Thomas's single-season record of 28.
Juxtaposed with Clark's rookie campaign, Reese's season will be a fascinating one to study for years to come. That's because she was one of the league's most extreme players -- in terms of both her strengths and her clear weaknesses.
Reese led the WNBA in rebounding rate (grabbing 22.8% of available boards) and was among the league's better scorers with 21.3 points per 100 possessions. She was also underrated at the defensive end, with one of the best steal rates of any forward and an extremely good on-versus-off-court plus/minus differential. (The Sky were an incredible 18.1 points per 100 better with Reese on the court than off, including an 8.0-point differential on offense and a 10.1-point differential on defense.)
At the same time, Reese's 46.4 true shooting percentage was well below the league average of 53.6%, and she did little to improve the offense with spacing or distribution. One of the reasons many found it so offensive for the analytical measures to favor Reese over Clark earlier in the season was that Reese seems like a fundamentally more limited player going forward. (The metrics, of course, are designed to measure backward-looking value, not future potential, but that's a fine distinction to make sometimes.)
What's next? Reese will have a hard cast on her hand for four weeks, then a soft cast for two more weeks after that, before she can map out her offseason plans. As mentioned above (and in previous editions of this ranking), Reese's top priority once she can practice again should be to improve her shooting -- both up-close and at range -- along with her shot selection in Year 2.
While Reese was never an elite shooter in college and has lacked a 3-point stroke in the WNBA, she can do better than shooting under 50% inside of 3 feet -- this might hurt her offensive rebounding some, but it will be worth it! -- and she should either improve her midrange game or stop taking 30% of her shots from between 3 and 10 feet (where the average WNBA player only takes 24% of her shots).
Angel Reese explains the nature of her wrist injury and why she will have season-ending surgery.
3. Leonie Fiebich, F, New York Liberty
Last ranked: No. 3 | Draft pick: No. 22 in 2020 (International)
Win shares: 3.1 | PER wins: 1.9 | RAPTOR wins: 3.6 | Consensus: 2.9
As the Liberty head into the playoffs as the favorites to end the Las Vegas Aces' run of consecutive championships, Fiebich continues to be one of the team's more reliable and efficient role players. And perhaps most importantly, she has kept improving throughout her rookie campaign.
Fiebich has increased her scoring output dramatically since the beginning of the season, rising to 8.1 points per game since the Olympic break. Also since then, she has a red-hot 74.1 true shooting percentage -- making 53.7% of her 3-pointers -- with an estimated RAPTOR of at least plus-2 at both ends of the court (plus-4.4 on offense and plus-2.9 on defense). That speaks to the versatility that has been her calling card all season long, allowing her to fill an important niche alongside New York's bigger names.
What's next? As noted, the Liberty have a league-high 46.3% chance of winning the title, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) forecast. As part of what goes into that, New York owns the best offense and the third-best defense in the WNBA, making it the league's best all-around team. (The Minnesota Lynx are the only other team that even ranks among the top four at both ends of the court.)
Having a coterie of stars such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones goes a long way toward building such an all-around basketball powerhouse, but Fiebich's play at both ends has helped the team find a new level even relative to last year's squad. If the Liberty do end the Aces' reign, Fiebich will undoubtedly have a hand in that outcome.
4. Kamilla Cardoso, C, Chicago Sky
Last ranked: No. 4 | Draft pick: No. 3 (South Carolina)
Win shares: 2.9 | PER wins: 3.0 | RAPTOR wins: 1.3 | Consensus: 2.4
Like many of the rookies on our list, Cardoso made significant progress as her first WNBA season went on, especially since the Olympic break. Cardoso went into the break with averages of 8.1 points (48.9 TS%), 7.8 rebounds and 1.2 assists with a -4.5 estimated RAPTOR; ever since, she has put up 12.0 PPG (64.4 TS%), 8.1 RPG, 2.4 APG and a plus-1.6 RAPTOR, making her one of the league's most improved players in the second half of the schedule.
And during September in particular, she has increased her scoring even further while logging 29 minutes per game. The Sky have struggled in the post-break period, winning three times in 14 games, but that's difficult to blame on Cardoso.
What's next? Chicago's late-season swoon has left the Sky most likely missing the playoffs, with a 17.6% probability of getting in according to BPI. Even if they do make it, it would be as the No. 8 seed -- setting up a matchup with the Liberty that would probably be unpleasant for the Sky anyway. And it's unclear if Cardoso would be available if the Sky do get in; she suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday and missed Tuesday's game against Atlanta.
That means Cardoso's next task will probably be an offseason in which she builds on the second half of 2024. She already improved many of her weaknesses from earlier in the season, and she could be even better next season in a more expanded role -- her usage rate since the Olympic break is still just 16.4%, which is below the league average of 20%.
5. Aaliyah Edwards, F, Washington Mystics
Last ranked: No. 5 | Draft pick: No. 6 (UConn)
Win shares: 1.6 | PER wins: 1.4 | RAPTOR wins: 0.8 | Consensus: 1.3
Edwards' top-line stats in September to date -- 20.5 MPG, 5.6 PPG (47.0 TS%), 5.4 RPG, 2.0 APG -- are almost completely identical to her August numbers, which had contributed to what we called "one of her roughest patches of the season" last time around.
But there are at least encouraging signs for Edwards on defense since the Olympic break: Her steal rate (2.1%) and block rate (3.0%) are both above 2%, and her defensive estimated RAPTOR of plus-1.8 in that span is a vast improvement over the minus-0.4 mark she'd posted in the first half of the season. Edwards was known at UConn for her ability to affect the game defensively in addition to making a difference on the glass, so this might be a sign she is delivering on that potential.
What's next? The Mystics have a real chance to secure the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, extending Edwards' rookie season. That's if she is available -- she suffered a right ankle injury against Atlanta on Friday and missed Washington's rematch with the Dream on Sunday.
If the Mystics do make the playoffs and Edwards does play, she'll have to use every bit of that improved defensive acumen to slow down a group of Liberty forwards headlined by Breanna Stewart.
6. Rickea Jackson, F, Los Angeles Sparks
Last ranked: No. 6 | Draft pick: No. 4 (Tennessee)
Win shares: 0.9 | PER wins: 1.4 | RAPTOR wins: 0.3 | Consensus: 0.9
Now that Clark is No. 1, Jackson's continued low placement in the advanced metrics is probably the place where the metrics differ most from the conventional rookie wisdom. Jackson certainly increased her scoring output as the season went on, improving her points per game each month of the season to date to now score 16.9 PPG in September -- including 22 or more points in three of her past four contests.
But aside from a 65.1% true shooting spike in August, Jackson has been well below league average in efficiency for the majority of the season, and she hasn't really improved her rates of assists, turnovers or offensive rebounds (the other statistical drivers of offensive efficiency) since the Olympic break.
Defensively, she continues to have one of the worst estimated RAPTORs in the WNBA -- her minus-3.0 mark on the season is tied for fourth lowest, ahead of only Maddy Siegrist (minus-4.4), Kalani Brown (minus-4.0) and Jacy Sheldon (minus-3.3), and even with Katie Lou Samuelson (minus-3.0).
What's next? Jackson's Sparks will end the season with the league's worst record, and they will have the best odds for the No. 1 pick in next year's draft (potentially landing them UConn's Paige Bueckers as the top selection). That and the return of 2024 No. 2 pick Cameron Brink from injury should give Jackson a far better supporting cast next season than she had as a rookie -- when only one of her nine qualified teammates (Dearica Hamby, at plus-0.3) posted a positive estimated RAPTOR rating.
If Jackson can also bolster the non-scoring aspects of her game, she can be one of the most improved players in the advanced metrics next season.
Best of the other qualifiers:
No. 7: Julie Vanloo, G, Washington Mystics (-0.6 consensus wins)
No. 8: Sevgi Uzun, G, Dallas Wings (-1.3)
No. 9: Jacy Sheldon, G, Wings (-1.3)