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College Football Playoff, bowl projections after Week 7

Wide receiver Austin Bolt and Boise State are entering the conversation for a first-round bye in the 12-team playoff. Marco Garcia/Imagn Images

The Big Ten took center stage Saturday, with Oregon and Penn State winning key conference matchups to stay undefeated, while Ohio State suffered its first loss -- at the hands of the Ducks.

In the SEC, Texas made a Red River statement, LSU and Tennessee posted overtime wins over Ole Miss and Florida, respectively, and Alabama survived a close call against South Carolina.

Iowa State and BYU remained unbeaten in the Big 12, while Clemson continues to trend in the right direction in the ACC.

What does it all mean for the College Football Playoff and the overall bowl picture?

In the new, expanded 12-team playoff, the five highest-ranked conference champions will make the field along with the next seven highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be awarded first-round byes, with the other eight teams meeting at the campus sites of the Nos. 5-8 seeds.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year's Six bowls, with this season's national championship game scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 36-game slate of bowls, from the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 14 to the Bahamas Bowl on Jan. 4.

We're here for all of it.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the CFP will play out, every week until the actual matchups are set Dec. 8 on Selection Day.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games

Dec. 20-21 -- ABC/ESPN or TNT Sports*
Bonagura: No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 5 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State

Bonagura: No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Georgia

Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Penn State

Bonagura: No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Clemson

* Specific times and networks for each game TBD

First-round breakdown

Bonagura: For weeks, these sort of exercises were bullish on the idea the SEC would get four teams in the expanded 12-team playoff, and while there's still a good chance that will happen, the intraconference attrition we've seen to date might prevent that. Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt, Tennessee's loss to Arkansas and Ole Miss' loss to Kentucky are the types of results that work against a four-bid SEC. This is especially true if the ACC and Big 12 keep at least two teams in the hunt until the end.

Schlabach: As Kyle said, I'm not sure we're going to see four or five SEC teams in the CFP. Georgia and Alabama have questions in the secondary. Tennessee has some problems on offense. Texas looks like the SEC's best team right now, especially after its 34-3 beatdown of Oklahoma in Saturday's Red River Rivalry. We'll find out a lot more about the Longhorns when they host Georgia on Saturday. Oregon grabbed early control of the Big Ten with its thrilling 32-31 win over Ohio State. The Ducks still play road games at Michigan and Wisconsin, but they seem to be trending up after some early struggles. I also considered Indiana, Tennessee and LSU for the final at-large spot. Army, Navy and Liberty were in the mix for the Group of 5 spot as well.


CFP quarterfinals

Tuesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 BYU

Wednesday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 1 Texas

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Oregon

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Boise State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami

Quarterfinals breakdown

Bonagura: We've been operating on the assumption that the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champions would get the first-round byes, but I want to challenge that this week. If Boise State is good enough to go to Autzen Stadium and almost beat Oregon -- playing the No. 2-ranked Ducks as tough as Ohio State did -- why should they drop to No. 12 in the seeding by default? I would pick the Broncos to beat either BYU or Iowa State right now, which are the two other options for the No. 4 seed.

Schlabach: I'd think Las Vegas oddsmakers would love to take your wager on BYU and Boise State right now. The Cougars still aren't getting enough credit in my opinion. They went on the road and beat a very good SMU team 18-15. Then they walloped two of the Big 12's better teams, Kansas State and Arizona, at home. BYU has a couple of potentially tricky games left, but it plays only one more team currently ranked in the AP poll during the regular season -- No. 16 Utah on the road.

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Finebaum: Texas' biggest threat, Alabama-Tennessee showdown

Paul Finebaum discusses Texas' biggest title threat and whether Alabama-Tennessee is a playoff eliminator.


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon

Friday, Jan. 10

CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Texas

Monday, Jan. 20

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas
Schlabach: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Texas

National championship breakdown

Bonagura: Another week, another prediction of the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds advancing to the semifinals. We can go ahead and start referring to this as the chalk outcomes considering those teams will likely be betting favorites against the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds come playoff time. We'll see how it plays out in real life, but I still think a reseeding in the quarterfinal makes sense for this format. A possible Oregon vs. Texas championship game also lets me revisit the dream former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott once had to bring Texas (along with Oklahoma) to the Pac-12, which would have set college football off into an alternate reality to the one we're living right now.

Schlabach: I'm going to stick with my top four teams from the preseason for now: Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. There will probably be an upset or two in the quarterfinals and semifinals, so it's probably a mistake to go with chalk. Georgia looked out of sorts on defense again in its 41-31 win over Mississippi State at home Saturday, although the Bulldogs might have been looking ahead to their road trip to No. 1 Texas. Quarterback Quinn Ewers looked a bit rusty in his first start in a month, but the rest of the Longhorns looked fine against the Sooners. I'm guessing Ohio State will bounce back from its deflating finish at Oregon. A Nov. 2 road trip to Penn State and late November home games against Indiana and Michigan will probably determine the Buckeyes' CFP fate.

Complete bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 14

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. NC Central
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. NC Central

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Virginia vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Louisiana Monroe

Tuesday, Dec. 17

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arizona vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. North Texas

Wednesday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Tulane

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: California vs. UNLV
Schlabach: California vs. UNLV

Thursday, Dec. 19

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7 p.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Liberty vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Friday, Dec. 20

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Memphis vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Boston College vs. South Carolina

Monday, Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisiana Monroe vs. UConn
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Charlotte

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Toledo vs. San José State
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Sam Houston vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Rutgers

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. TCU
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arizona

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern

Friday, Dec. 27

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Army

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Noon or 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. West Virginia

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Vanderbilt

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m.
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. USC
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Washington State

Saturday, Dec. 28

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Tulane vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Virginia Tech

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York City)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Illinois
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Illinois

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Washington
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. San José State

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Army
Schlabach: Virginia vs. Navy

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
7:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. USC

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UCF vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Oregon State

Monday, Dec. 30

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Missouri

Tuesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Michigan vs. LSU
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Colorado
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Washington

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Indiana vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Utah vs. Arkansas

Thursday, Jan. 2

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Louisville vs. LSU

Friday, Jan. 3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. James Madison
Schlabach: UCF vs. Minnesota

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Duke vs. Iowa

Saturday, Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11 a.m., ESPN2

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois