There are only three more Saturdays before the College Football Playoff selection committee meets for the first time to reveal its first of six rankings on Nov. 5. This week is about the time when individually, committee members start making their own top-25 lists in preparation for how they might vote in November.
Following Week 7, no team saw its playoff chances increase more than Oregon, which jumped 18% after beating Ohio State, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. And no team sank more than Ole Miss, which saw its chances drop by 33% following its loss to LSU.
Are the two-loss Rebels really done before November? Or are they on the bubble? Is LSU in with the win?
This is a snapshot of what the committee might do today -- through seven weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week -- plus a look at eight more teams that could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: Following their win against rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns earned the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is also based on Texas being the selection committee's No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas has the best chance to reach the CFP (96%), and the best chance to win the national title (33%). That could change quickly with a home loss to Georgia on Saturday.
No. 2 seed Oregon Ducks: This is the biggest change this week, as Oregon's win against Ohio State on Saturday pushed the Ducks into the No. 2 spot in the latest projected ranking and slots them as the new Big Ten champion. Oregon would earn the No. 2 seed as the second-highest-ranked conference champion. This illustrates how important winning a conference title is, because this is the first Bubble Watch in which Ohio State isn't awarded a first-round bye, so now the Buckeyes would have to win four straight games to win the national title. The reality is it's going to be extremely difficult for Oregon to beat Ohio State twice, so the Buckeyes still have a realistic chance of winning the Big Ten -- unless Penn State has something to say about it.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: Nothing changed for the Canes during their bye week, as Miami would earn this seed as the ACC champion and the third-highest ranked conference champion. Miami is on a collision course with Clemson to play in the ACC championship game but has a tough trip to Louisville on Saturday that could change the picture entirely with a loss. This is the Canes' toughest remaining game, and ESPN Analytics gives them a slight edge, with a 55.3% chance to win.
No. 4 seed BYU Cougars: The Cougars earned this spot again as the projected Big 12 champion and the committee's fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. However, the Big 12 still has five teams with at least a 12% chance to reach the league title game (Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Colorado). BYU and Iowa State don't play each other during the regular season but are currently the two teams with the best chances to play for the conference title.
The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 4 BYU
Explaining the seeding: This bracket features two Big 12 teams: conference champion BYU and runner-up Iowa State. This also shows that while Penn State could be the committee's No. 3 team overall, the Nittany Lions can't finish higher than the fifth seed without winning the Big Ten. (The first four spots are reserved for conference champions.) According to ESPN Analytics, Penn State is No. 8 in the country with a 20% chance to earn a first-round bye.
No. 9 Clemson Tigers at No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide
Winner plays: No. 1 Texas
Explaining the seeding: Alabama and Texas don't play each other during the regular season, so if the Tide were to win this matchup with Clemson, a Texas vs. Alabama quarterfinal would be the first time the two teams have faced each other since the Longhorns' win during the 2023 season. Alabama and Texas could also play each other in the SEC championship game, though. This would be the third SEC opponent of the season for Clemson, which opened against Georgia and closes against rival South Carolina.
No. 11 LSU Tigers at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: LSU was one of the "first four out" last week but earned a promotion after its win against Ole Miss, the Tigers' first statement win of the season. Ohio State was the committee's No. 4 team in the country and the third-best Big Ten team behind Oregon and Penn State. Ohio State hosts PSU on Nov. 2, though, and that can change things quickly.
No. 10 Boise State Broncos at No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 2 Oregon
Explaining the seeding: Boise State is guaranteed a spot in the playoff as one of the five-highest-ranked conference champions, and because it was ranked in the committee's top 12, its seed matches its ranking in this scenario. The selection committee doesn't reseed or try to avoid potential rematches when it is ranking its final top 25 on Selection Day. This scenario allows for Boise State and Oregon to play each other again in the quarterfinals (Oregon won 37-34 in Week 2), if the Broncos can beat Georgia on its home turf.
Last two in
No. 11 LSU
Why they should be worried: The Tigers shouldn't get too comfortable because their remaining schedule is ranked 13th in the country in terms of difficulty, according to ESPN Analytics. They've got back-to-back road trips to Arkansas and Texas A&M before hosting Alabama on Nov. 9. LSU needs more on its résumé to impress the committee and keep a spot in the bracket; otherwise, wins against FCS Nicholls, 2-4 South Alabama and a 1-4 UCLA team aren't going to cut it.
ESPN Analytics says: LSU is No. 34 in the country with just a 7.7% chance of finishing with two or fewer losses.
No. 12 Iowa State
Why they should be worried: Iowa State is ranked No. 76 in the country in strength of schedule and currently doesn't have any wins against ranked opponents. It will help if Iowa can sneak back into the ranking, as that is currently the Cyclones' best win, and if K-State can stay ranked. The Cyclones don't have much margin for error if they don't win the Big 12. They can't afford a bad loss to an unranked opponent, and if they don't win the Big 12, they better have a win against a ranked K-State team to help compensate for it.
ESPN Analytics says: Iowa State is No. 10 in the country with a 65.9% chance to finish with two or fewer losses.
First four out
Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)
Best win: Sept. 21 at Oklahoma, 25-15
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Georgia
After losing at Arkansas and then needing overtime to beat a struggling, unranked Florida team, the Vols have some work to do both in terms of appearances and résumé. It also didn't help that their best win is now against a two-loss OU team that is ranked No. 105 in offensive efficiency.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1)
Best win: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M, 23-13
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at USC
Notre Dame still has the worst loss for playoff contenders -- at home to Northern Illinois -- but still has wins at Texas A&M, at Purdue (which just pushed Illinois to overtime) and against Louisville. It also helps Notre Dame that upcoming opponents Army and Navy are still both undefeated.
Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
Best win: Oct. 12 at Colorado, 31-28
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State
K-State can still reach the Big 12 title game WITH BYU, but it's going to need some help to get there instead of the undefeated Cougars because of the head-to-head loss. If Iowa State and BYU are playing for the Big 12 title, that likely means K-State lost to both of them, which means their playoff hopes are over. That's why the pressure is on to run the table, or hope some help puts them in contention for the conference title.
Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)
Best win: Oct. 5 at Northwestern, 41-24.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State
When your best win so far is against a three-loss Northwestern team, there's still plenty of work to do to be taken seriously as a CFP contender. Indiana can get a résumé boost on Saturday with a win against a 5-1 Nebraska team. November games against Michigan and Ohio State could define the season.
Next four out
Texas A&M Aggies (5-1)
Best win: Oct. 5 vs. Missouri, 41-10
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas
Head-to-head results are one of several tiebreakers the selection committee considers when evaluating comparable teams, so if the Aggies and Notre Dame are both in the mix for an at-large spot, Texas A&M's season-opening loss could be the difference. However, that doesn't mean that they can't both get in. But that's one reason the Irish are in the "first four out" category.
Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1)
Best win: Sept. 20 at Nebraska, 31-24 (OT)
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 26 at Oregon
The Illini were fortunate to avoid a home loss to unranked Purdue, and now they've got Michigan coming to town. If Illinois is going to be taken seriously in the playoff race, it needs to win on Saturday, because losses to Penn State and Michigan would show the committee it's not capable of beating the league's better teams.
Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)
Best win: Oct. 5 at South Carolina, 27-3
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 vs. Georgia
Don't count out a two-loss team. The Rebels' biggest concern is not their overtime loss at LSU, it's now needing to win out and beat Georgia along the way to make up for it. Ole Miss isn't going to reach the CFP if it doesn't have some statement wins, and right now the Rebels are in desperate need of one.
Pitt Panthers (6-0)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Cincinnati, 28-27
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 vs. Clemson
The back half of Pitt's schedule is loaded, with a trip to SMU, a home game against Clemson, and back-to-back road trips to Louisville and Boston College to end the season. ESPN Analytics projects Pitt will lose three of those: to SMU, Clemson and Louisville. This could be fleeting, but it's also a snapshot to date.
Dropped from the bubble: Oklahoma
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (5-1), Mountain West
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24
Why they're here: The Broncos have the nation's third-best scoring offense (46.8 points per game), are No. 3 in total offense (523 yards per game) and also lead the nation in sacks (4.83 per game). Their close loss at Oregon -- the Ducks hit a field goal as time expired to win -- looks even better after Oregon's win against Ohio State. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State remains the Group of 5 favorite to reach the CFP with a 47% chance to make the field.
2. Navy Midshipmen (5-0), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Memphis, 56-44
Why they're here: The Midshipmen get the slight edge over Army simply because their win against Memphis is better than anything on the Black Knights' schedule. The committee will have an issue with both Army's and Navy's résumés -- they are among the worst in the country -- but Navy is No. 132 in schedule strength and Army is No. 133. There's a 31% chance that either Army or Navy can reach the CFP.
3. Army Black Knights (6-0), American Athletic
Best win: Yikes. The only opponent Army has defeated with a winning record is 3-2 Lehigh of the Patriot League. Nobody else has more than two wins.
Why they're here: Army leads the nation in offensive efficiency and has the best chance to reach the AAC title game (87.8%). Army's opponents, though, are a combined 8-20. Army can really boost its playoff hopes if it can upset Notre Dame on Nov. 23.
4. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-1), Sun Belt
Best win: Oct. 5 vs. James Madison, 21-19
Why they're here: Their lone loss -- 51-3 to Texas -- was a doozy, but it was on the road against the No. 1 team in the country. The reality is that Tulane has a better chance to win the American than ULM does to win the Sun Belt -- and two-loss Tulane is a better team. But at 5-1 and with a win against JMU, the Warhawks got the nod this week.
5. UNLV Rebels (5-1), Mountain West
Best win: Umm ...
Why they're here: Road wins against Houston and Kansas pushed the Rebels onto the radar, but those Big 12 opponents are now a combined 3-9. Even FCS Utah Tech is 0-7. UNLV can make a real playoff push this month, however, if it can win back-to-back games at Oregon State and on a Friday night against Boise State. UNLV still has an 11% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Also watch: Tulane, James Madison, Liberty