We're one-quarter of the way through the "league phase" of the 2024-25 Champions League, and we're still getting our footing. We've had more than our fair share of blowouts -- on Tuesday alone, we had more matches decided by four or more goals (five) than matches decided by zero or one (three) -- and when we've gotten an upset like, say, Lille's 1-0 defeat of Real Madrid on Wednesday, we don't immediately know what it means or how significant it may be.
We're learning, though. Granted, the table is a mess and will remain one into 2025. The top four teams in the competition thus far are Borussia Dortmund, Brest, Benfica and Bayer Leverkusen, while Manchester City are eighth, Arsenal are 13th, Bayern Munich are 15th and Real Madrid are 17th. None of that really means anything. But we know who's on their way toward qualifying for the knockout rounds, we know who's most likely to secure a top-eight finish (and a bye to the round of 16), and we know that Manchester City and Real Madrid are still the title favorites.
We also know that neither City nor Real Madrid are quite as likely to win the title as they were two weeks ago after matchday one.
With all that in mind, let's look at who's moving up and down and which players shined the brightest in a pretty dull set of Tuesday matches and an absolutely delightful set of Wednesday matches.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PROJECTIONS AFTER MATCHDAY 2
Let's begin with the projections. Opta and ESPN BET info was used to calculate the teams in each tier based on their chances of advancing to the knockout phase and chances of winning overall. The criteria for each tier are noted below.
Within each tier, who's rising and who's falling?
Tier 1: The favorites (2)
Criteria: Title chances of 10% or more
Note: Odds of finishing in the top 8 and top 24 come from Opta's most recent projections, while the title odds are derived from the current betting odds at ESPN BET.
Stock up
None
Stock down
Both teams, in a way: Compared to where things stood at the end of matchday one, the club that has seen its title odds fall the most, per ESPN BET, is ... the front-runner who won 4-0 on the road this week to extend its Champions League unbeaten streak to 25.
Odd, huh?
Craig Burley breaks down what went wrong for Real Madrid in their Champions League defeat vs. Lille.
Manchester City's stock fell because of an injury to star midfielder -- and, in a just universe, soon-to-be Ballon d'Or winner -- Rodri. It has certainly impacted their outlook for the season, though I'm not sure too many people are going to feel sorry for the rampant trophy winners.
Real Madrid's odds, meanwhile, fell the old-fashioned way: with a loss. Lille got a penalty goal from Jonathan David late in the first half and somehow weathered the late storm Los Blancos always seem to put together. They held Real Madrid to just six shot attempts in the first 85 minutes of the match, but the reigning European champs then doubled that total in the last 10 minutes.
Lille's Lucas Chevalier played the game of his life, stopping shots from Antonio Rüdiger (from 5 meters), Jude Bellingham (from 4), Arda Güler (from 10 and 26) and Vinícius Júnior (from 13) -- all from the 85th minute on -- and Lille's Decathlon Arena erupted as the match ended.
THIS IS WHAT IT MEANS 🤩
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 2, 2024
Absolute scenes as Lille break Real Madrid's 36-game unbeaten streak in front of a roaring Stade Pierre-Mauroy 🏟️🔊 pic.twitter.com/bgVtaEr1Fu
Fun times.
The wide-open format of the new Champions League -- no four-team groups, just a single, 36-team table -- means it's hard to know what the stakes are in early matches like this. A win almost certainly meant more for Lille (who now have a 67% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds) than a loss did for Real Madrid. But it was also the first loss in any competition for Real Madrid in more than a year. That makes it a pretty big deal.
Tier 2: Absolute contenders (12)
Criteria: Title chances of between 1-10%
Note: Odds of finishing in the top 8 and top 24 come from Opta's most recent projections, while the title odds are derived from the current betting odds at ESPN BET.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss how Mikel Arteta and Arsenal have coped without Martin Ødegaard.
Stock up
Arsenal: The Gunners were favored in this week's major headline match against Paris Saint-Germain. They again pulled the "take and allow no risks and play lowest-common-denominator ball" routine that Mikel Arteta breaks out for most big matches, attempting just six total shots to PSG's 10 but allowing zero shots worth 0.1 xG or more (PSG only put two on goal). That routine always carries major 0-0 possibilities, but when you put five of your six shots on target and score twice in the first 35 minutes, it can work brilliantly.
PSG's João Neves did hit the post in the 66th minute, but PSG managed only two shot attempts, both off-target, in the final 22 minutes. And while center-back Marquinhos, their most dangerous progressive passer, completed 94% of his passes, almost none of them put the ball in a threatening area. They all went side to side, or to the flanks.
Arsenal can and will score big against lesser opponents, but in big games, even if they have the attacking talent that can reward risk, this is what they are. And at worst, Tuesday's win offset their 0-0 draw with Atalanta in matchday one.
Bayer Leverkusen: It turns out that Leverkusen manager Xabi Alonso is also finding comfort in "sufferball."
ESPN FC's Alejandro Moreno says Bayer Leverkusen did just enough to beat AC Milan 1-0 in the Champions League.
Last year, his Bayer Leverkusen team charged to the Bundesliga title and lost only once all season thanks to a perfect balance between a possession-heavy attack and a suffocating transition defense. Early this season, the transition defense hasn't been nearly as sharp. Starting with their win over Stuttgart in the DFL-Supercup, they allowed at least two goals in four of their first seven matches in all competitions, including three in a loss to RB Leipzig and three more in an unexpectedly wide-open 4-3 win over Wolfsburg on Sept. 22.
So, over the past two matches, Alonso has gone back to basics. In a 1-1 draw with Bayern on Saturday, Leverkusen absorbed heavy attack and managed just 31% possession and managed just three total shot attempts, but they scored with one of them, and only four of Bayern's 18 shot attempts were worth more than 0.08 xG. They were still a little bit fortunate to emerge with a 1-1 draw, but they dramatically cut down on their defensive breakdowns.
On Tuesday against Milan, they played optimistic ball early and suffered late.
When Victor Boniface to put Leverkusen ahead 1-0, it was the product of an incredible team goal -- Aleix García to Alex Grimaldo to Jeremie Frimpong, with Frimpong's dangerous shot saved directly to Boniface -- and it was the culmination of 51 minutes of dominance. At that point, they had attempted 13 shots (1.59 xG) to Milan's two (0.19).
From that point forward, Milan attempted 14 shots (0.81 xG) to Leverkusen's three (0.23). Once again, Alonso sacrificed possession for a packed-in defense, and while Milan indeed created some decent scoring opportunities from it, they also attempted only one shot closer than 9 meters to goal.
I'm not sure how sustainable this approach is -- yes, Bayer Leverkusen just pulled four points from matches against Bayern and Milan, but the combined shot quality (1.88 xG for Leverkusen, 2.38 for opponents) suggests fortune was on their side. But it has worked for now, and combined with their easy win over Feyenoord in matchday one, Alonso's charges are one of seven teams with two Champions League wins in two tries.
Juventus: The wildest match of the week featured an unlikely participant. Juve have allowed zero goals in six Serie A matches thus far and have been held scoreless in three of those matches as well, but they were sucked into a bit of a track meet with RB Leipzig on Wednesday, and damn, if it didn't look good on them.
Well, sort of.
Playing with a man advantage for the final 30 minutes -- at home, no less -- Leipzig attempted 24 shots worth a whopping 3.3 xG while Juventus managed 16 shots worth just 1.2. Leipzig took a 2-1 lead when Benjamin Sesko hammered in a penalty in the 65th minute, but Dusan Vlahovic knocked in a long-range laser just three minutes later, and Francisco Conceição scored in the 82nd to give short-handed Juve a shocking lead. Like Real Madrid, Leipzig started hammering the goal late (from the 85th minute on, they attempted eight shots worth 1.2 xG), but somehow nothing went in.
I wouldn't call this a sustainable formula, obviously. Thiago Motta has so mastered a controlled, possession-as-defense style that I would guess he didn't enjoy Wednesday very much either. Still, Opta's power ratings gave Juve only a 26% chance of winning, with an expected point total of 1.04, and that doesn't even factor in the man disadvantage. Snagging three points was a magic trick, and it solidly increased Juve's odds of finishing in the top eight.
Craig Burley discusses the wonderful job Unai Emery has done at Aston Villa following their dramatic 1-0 over Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
Aston Villa: Oh, to have been at Villa Park on Wednesday night. It didn't take much for Villa to beat what appears to be a hapless Young Boys squad in matchday one. But on Wednesday, in their first European Cup/Champions League home match since playing Juventus in the 1982-83 quarterfinals, they took on, and beat, the same team they bested in the 1981-82 final.
As with Leipzig-Juventus, the team that created the most/best chances failed to actually put enough of those chances in the net. Bayern outshot Villa 17-5 and created 1.4 xG to Villa's 0.4. But Jhon Durán's whole ethos in 2024-25 is "Take your xG and shove it." Bayern failed on a few pretty high-quality opportunities, while Duran did this:
SUPER-SUB JHON DURÁN PUTS VILLA AHEAD AGAINST BAYERN FROM DISTANCE 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Dn53Tsg55Y
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 2, 2024
A first-touch attempt from 32 meters away. Its xG value: 0.02. Goal.
Coming quickly off of a Bayern set piece, Manuel Neuer was positioned far up the pitch as a ball circulation option, and Duran caught him out. Preposterous stuff from an attacker who is putting together a preposterous season. Villa now have six points from two matches -- neither Manchester City nor Arsenal can say that -- and they've nearly inserted themselves into the conversation for a top-eight spot.
Stock down
Bayern Munich: Granted, "stock down" in this case simply means "now 50-50 to finish in the top eight," but Bayern still dropped points they weren't supposed to on Wednesday night in Birmingham. Opta's power ratings gave them a 53% chance of winning, with an expected point total of 1.81; only Real Madrid's loss was more costly in that regard.
Bayern are still the No. 4 overall betting favorite, but this one has to sting all the same, and not just in the ears.
Atletico Madrid: Bayern's loss was a glancing blow stemming from a great finish. Atletico's 4-0 loss to Benfica, meanwhile, was just an absolute walloping.
Benfica attempted 19 shots worth 4.2 xG against one of the more defense-centric major clubs in the world, while Atletico Madrid attempted four worth 0.2. Granted, Benfica's xG total included two penalties (not shown in the chart below), but this was one-sided.
Recent form made this one even more of a shocker. Benfica have already dropped points in a couple of Primeira Liga matches this year and got outshot in a humdrum 2-1 win over Crvena Zvezda in their first Champions League match. They haven't been in great form, while Atleti were unbeaten in all competitions, with wins over Girona, Athletic Club and RB Leipzig (and a weekend draw with Real Madrid) this young season.
Aside from Manchester City, whose odds fell for injury-related reasons, Atletico's title odds fell more than anyone else's this week. This is a competition in which goal differential is going to matter significantly, and they just took a big, fat minus-4.
Tier 3: Spicy long shots (12)
Criteria: Title chance of 1% or lower but at least a 50% chance of advancing to knockout rounds
Note: Odds of finishing in the top 8 and top 24 come from Opta's most recent projections, while the title odds are derived from the current betting odds at ESPN BET.
Stock up
Lille: No one stole more points (compared to what was expected) than Lille did in matchday two. They outplayed Real Madrid for nearly 90 minutes, then withstood the late storm to which almost everyone in the sport eventually succumbs.
Perhaps most impressively, they won by taking the fight to the champs. They attempted 20 one-on-ones and won half of them. Whoever had space pushed the ball (six different players had at least 10 combined progressive carries and passes). Jonathan David scored via penalty but created three other decent shots as well. And when all else failed, they leaned on Lucas Chevalier, and he came through. Great performance.
Feyenoord: From an expectations standpoint, the 1969-70 European Cup winners helped their cause significantly on Wednesday in Spain. Following a demoralizing 4-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen in matchday one, they beat Girona in a funky match in rainy conditions. They benefited from a pair of own goals and had to foil a pretty steady array of one-on-ones and attacking sequences, but they snagged three points.
Beat Salzburg at home in November and find one other win, and that might be enough to advance.
Steve Nicol explains his frustrations with the new-look Champions League group stage.
Brest: Perhaps no one in this tournament has improved their outlook more than the Champions League debutants from the western tip of France.
After last season's thrilling third-place finish in Ligue 1, Brest have struggled in league play, pulling just six points from their first six matches and losing a couple of key players (left back Bradley Locko, defensive midfielder Pierre Lees-Melou) to injury. Yet they've matched that point total in two Champions League matches.
After a solid 2-1 home win over Sturm Graz -- "home" in this case being the larger stadium in Guingamp, an hour-and-a-half's drive from their actual home -- they went to Salzburg and rolled 4-0. Opta's power ratings gave them just a 26% chance of winning, with an expected point total of about 1.0. They came home with three points.
They burned hot from a finishing standpoint -- their four goals came from 13 shots worth 2.0 xG, while Salzburg attempted 15 shots worth 1.6 and couldn't put one in the net -- and all we've really learned so far is that they would fare pretty well in Austria's Bundesliga. More difficult opponents loom, starting with Bayer Leverkusen on matchday three. But that's secondary to the fact that Brest! Have two wins! In two Champions League matches!
They were a clearly-defined Tier 4 team heading into this tournament, but with teams likely needing nine to 10 points to advance to the knockout rounds, Brest are about two-thirds of the way there with six matches to go.
Incroyable!
Sparta Prague: Based on how its top teams have performed in Europe thus far, you could make a case that outside of Europe's Big Five leagues, Czechia's First League is the best on the continent at the moment.
Including qualification rounds, Czech teams have played 22 matches, won 16 of them and lost only two. Slavia Prague fell narrowly to Lille in Champions League qualification, but they beat Ludogorets Razgrad in their first Europa League match; Viktoria Plzen rolled through Europa qualification and drew 3-3 at Eintracht Frankfurt in their first match.
Sparta, meanwhile, have more than held their own in the top competition. They stomped Salzburg two weeks ago, and on Tuesday, they drew 1-1 at Stuttgart. Sparta absorbed 26 shots and needed a Chevalier-esque performance from keeper Peter Vindahl (nine saves), but they minimized Stuttgart's high-quality opportunities, blocking nine shots and allowing just 0.07 xG per shot. Meanwhile, the high-energy, right-sided combination of midfielder Ángelo Preciado and Veljko Birmancevic was a handful in both defense (30 combined defensive interventions) and attack (seven shots worth 0.6 xG and four chances created).
This is a sturdy team that has almost climbed into the top 30 in Opta's power rankings.
Stock down
RB Leipzig: They've led for 47 minutes and trailed for about 20, and they have zero points from two matches to show for it.
The luck of the draw has been unkind -- Brest's Champions League experience, for instance, began with two Austrian teams, while RBL got Atletico Madrid and Juventus -- and that will balance out soon enough. But of the eight teams who have zero points after two matchdays, four entered this week ranked 100th or worse in Opta's global power rankings, three more were outside the top 20 ... and Leipzig were 13th. Even against stiff competition, an 0-fer is disappointing, especially when they led in both matches (and had a man advantage, at home, in one).
Tier 4: Here for a good time, not a long time (10)
Criteria: Under 50% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds
Note: Odds of finishing in the top 8 and top 24 come from Opta's most recent projections, while the title odds are derived from the current betting odds at ESPN BET.
Stock up
None: If you're in this tier, things aren't looking amazing, though at least Club Brugge (three), Bologna (one), Shakhtar Donetsk (one) and Dinamo Zagreb (one) have points.
Stock down
RB Salzburg: For a while now, Salzburg have been the model of a perfect mid-sized club. Backed by the Red Bull ownership machine, they won 10 straight Austrian Bundesliga crowns, losing a number of future stars to bigger clubs (two in particular) -- Sadio Mané (Southampson) in 2014-15, Naby Keïta and Dayot Upamecano (both to RB Leipzig) in 2016-17, Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund) in 2019-20, Dominik Szoboszlai (RB Leipzig) in 2020-21, Karim Adeyemi (Borussia Dortmund) in 2022-23, Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig) in 2023-24 -- and simply replacing them with other future stars.
They're always young and exciting, but over the past couple of seasons they've fallen into an imbalance: too young and not exciting enough. Their title streak ended at Sturm Graz's hands last season, and after some competitive successes in Europe -- a Europa League semifinal run in 2018, a Champions League round-of-16 run in 2022 -- they quickly bombed out of last year's tournament. And, well, after losses by a combined 7-0 to Sparta Prague and Brest, they're steadily on their way toward doing the same this season.
In fact, if they don't pull points from Dinamo Zagreb in matchday three, their home stretch (last four matches: Bayer Leverkusen, PSG, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid) could leave them with zero points overall.
Players of the week
Karim Adeyemi, Borussia Dortmund
It was an "Adeyemi Special" in some ways -- bursts of absolute brilliance, followed by a minor injury -- but before he went off with a thigh problem, the 22-year-old contributed maybe his greatest burst of brilliance in yellow and black, netting a first-half hat trick.
His first goal came off of a deflection, but the last two each came from sensational finishes. Here's the second if you don't believe me:
KARIM ADEYEMI KNOWS HE IS HIM. 😤 pic.twitter.com/mj8lqgec68
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 1, 2024
BVB have had a weird "great in the Champions League, mediocre in the Bundesliga" thing going on for most of 2024 -- they reached the Champions League final while finishing fifth in the league last season, and they now have two wins in two Champions League matches while again sitting fifth in Germany -- but when Adeyemi plays like this, they are virtually untouchable.
Lucas Chevalier, Lille
The 22-year old is quite simply one of the most exciting young keepers in the world. Including qualification, he has played in six Champions League matches this season. He has faced 33 shots on goal that were worth 8.5 postshot xG. That's 3.5 goals prevented, easily the most in the competition thus far. (In second place: another Ligue 1 goalkeeper, Brest's Marco Bizot.) He has allowed only five goals.
In facing Real Madrid's late charge on Wednesday, it was like he had eight arms. It was a sight to behold.
Ilkay Gündogan, Manchester City
It was obviously pretty easy work for Manchester City on Tuesday against Slovan Bratislava, Opta's lowest-ranked team in the field. (At 189th in Opta's rankings, the Slovakian champs sit directly between Liga MX side Guadalajara and the LA Galaxy of Major League Soccer.) But it's still awfully fun watching a maestro at work, and Gundogan put together a particularly Gundogan-ian performance: 1 goal, 5 chances created (only Atalanta's Laza Samardzic had more this week), 35 combined progressive carries and passes (only Barcelona's Iñigo Martínez had more) and 7 ball recoveries.
We talk a lot about how difficult it is to properly measure a midfielder's performance with stats, but that stat line? Absolute greatness.
Abdallah Sima, Brest
Primarily a crosses-and-pressing guy in Ligue 1 play, the 23-year old confounded Salzburg, showing up unaccounted for in the box multiple times, attempting three high-value shots and scoring twice. He was also brilliant at interrupting Salzburg's buildup play, making seven ball recoveries among his 15 defensive interventions. Is Brest's early success a bit of a mirage? Probably. Does that make it less fun at the moment? Absolutely not.
Is Brest's early success a bit of a mirage? Probably. Does that make it less fun at the moment? Absolutely not.
Dusan Vlahovic, Juventus
Down to 10 men? Down a goal? No worries!
An absolutely sensational hit from Dušan Vlahović ☄️
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 2, 2024
10-man Juventus are level! 😱 pic.twitter.com/rpkjziiSTA
Ángel Di María, Benfica
He's still got it. In 71 minutes against Atletico, the 36-year old scored a penalty, created four chances, completed nine progressive carries, attempted six one-on-ones and made seven defensive interventions for good measure. He just keeps being Angel Di Maria.
Jerdy Schouten, PSV
For the second straight match, PSV dropped points -- this time, allowing a late goal to draw 1-1 with Sporting CP despite statistical domination -- but got a guy on the Players of the Week list. And really, what's more important than that? Last time, it was Johan Bakayoko; this time, it's a midfielder who redefines "industrious."
Schouten scored maybe the goal of the week with this absolute screamer ...
Jerdy Schouten unleashes a powerful strike from distance for PSV! 💥🎯 pic.twitter.com/15niQOhqbs
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 1, 2024
... but that's not the main reason why he's on this list. He also made 17 ball recoveries among 25 defensive interventions. Those are absurd totals. For context: No one else in matchday two recorded more than 21 of the latter or 11 of the former. Schouten was absolutely everywhere. He was a wrecking ball and deserved three points on his own.
Mehdi Taremi, Inter Milan
No club in the world puts aging veterans in position to succeed better than Inter at the moment, so naturally it makes sense that the 32-year-old Taremi, who had scored seven goals with four assists in 14 Champions League matches the past two seasons with Porto, would move to Inter and play well. He hasn't done much in Serie A play yet (169 minutes, one start, one assist), but he was the star on Tuesday night, knocking in a penalty goal and assisting two others -- one to 35-year old Marko Arnautovic, one to Lautaro Martínez -- in a 4-0 Inter romp.
Petar Sucic, Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo probably isn't going to snag many points in this competition, but they managed a 2-2 home draw with Monaco (that sounds kinder than "They led 2-0 with 20 minutes remaining but couldn't hold on") in an absolute deluge of rain, and Sucic was the main reason why. He scored in the 48th minute, created a chance in the 85th and made 11 ball recoveries, third most of matchday two.