Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Green Bay Packers WRs frustrate us all season
Packers QB Jordan Love was arguably fantasy's top option at the position over the final two months of last season, and he has thrown 10 TD passes over his first four games of this season, missing two other games because of a knee injury. Love is one of just 10 quarterbacks since the NFL merger to throw multiple TD passes in 10 consecutive games, including the playoffs. He clearly is a fantasy starter. RB Josh Jacobs is also a reliable fantasy option, and TE Tucker Kraft has emerged as a fantasy regular at his position.
That leaves wide receiver, where a deep crew is so young and talented, but because targets are liberally spread around, fantasy managers might not see much consistency. No NFL team can match the youth and depth of Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks. The first three of those fellows combined for four touchdowns in Sunday's blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals. Wicks left the game early as a result of a shoulder injury, while Reed suffered an ankle injury. OK, stuff happens. Players get hurt. Perhaps these players play in Week 7, but the Packers have the depth to be cautious and put into practice a sort of load-management template. That might help the other options and keep everyone fresh.
Field Yates details the fantasy conundrum that is Romeo Doubs and whether he is a starter.
Fantasy managers knew not to activate Doubs in Week 5, as the team issued a one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team when he complained about a lack of targets. He certainly isn't the first wide receiver to do so. Go ask Calvin Ridley how he is enjoying his time with the Tennessee Titans. Still, did anyone take what Doubs said seriously? It might be selfish, but aren't fantasy managers a tad selfish, too? We just want numbers, and while few would applaud Doubs' behavior, perhaps he was on to something. No Packer is averaging six targets per game. Wan'Dale Robinson of the New York Giants averages 10 per game.
Reed was the lone Love option with more than four targets on Sunday, seeing six. Other than the Week 4 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, when the Packers trailed 28-0 and Love ended up throwing 54 times, there is a theme. These targets are really spread about, and Week 4 seems aberrant -- as do Weeks 2 and 3 when Love was out and backup Malik Willis barely threw. How often will Love attempt 50 passes? Doubs led the way with seven targets in Week 1 in Brazil. In fact, remove Week 4, and no Packers player has more than seven targets in any game, including Reed, who is clearly the top option, but not on the level of most top-20 WRs due to this underwhelming volume.
Reed, Doubs and Watson -- in that order, with Reed well ahead -- all moved up in this week's rest-of-season rankings, while the injured Wicks fell, but there is risk here for all of them. Green Bay's depth is unique, and while good for Love, it is not really a positive for fantasy purposes. Love is great, and even missing two games because of the knee injury, he should again sail past 500 passing attempts, 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. However, none of his receivers reached 100 targets, 80 receptions or 800 receiving yards last season. We should not ignore this. Reed averages fewer than six targets per game. It is tough to be a top-20 WR with so little volume and a dependence on touchdowns (Mike Evans is unique).
Ultimately, because you are adding them to your teams, you want to know if you can trust Packers wide receivers. It might be premature to answer. Reed dominated Week 1, but partly because of a 33-yard rushing touchdown. Ignore Weeks 2, 3 and 4, and focus on the past two games in which Love throws to ... everybody, because everybody seems to be open all of the time. He targeted 10 players on Sunday, and seven the week prior.
Packers wide receivers might be great, but they are not being targeted enough for fantasy purposes -- even Reed. Unfortunately, unless Reed breaks from the group (if Love were to suddenly alter the current plan of using everyone), be prepared for statistical inconsistency with this crew.
Don't be surprised if ... every RB thrives in the San Francisco system
San Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey averaged a league-leading 24.5 PPR points per game last season because he is an awesome player. Nobody denies this. Backup Jordan Mason, mostly a nonfactor in the passing game, averages 15.4 PPR points this season (18th at RB) and, despite leaving his Week 6 game prematurely because of a left shoulder sprain, he has surpassed 600 rushing yards for the season over six games. Simple math tells us this is more than 100 rushing yards per game, at 5.3 yards per pop. It is quite impressive, and all credit to Mason. Still, it's clear this is an attractive situation for all running backs.
That's where rookie Isaac Guerendo comes in, for he was "next man up" for Mason last Thursday and, for most of his carries, he did not look special. Then, on the 49ers' final drive, he exploded for a 76-yard run -- which is a bit misleading, because he probably could have made it an 81-yard touchdown had he not wisely opted to slow down so that he could be tackled inbounds, letting the 49ers wind the clock and forcing the Seattle Seahawks to use their timeouts. It worked. The 49ers won by 12.
Stephania Bell explains why Jordan Mason's injury isn't as bad as initially feared.
Are the 49ers a running back factory, able to place anyone of reasonable talent in a role and watch them thrive? This isn't meant to demean prior achievements for McCaffrey and Mason, both of whom might watch Guerendo handle most of the touches in Week 7 against the Chiefs. Remember previous McCaffrey backup Elijah Mitchell, currently out for the season after hamstring surgery? The 2021 sixth-round pick nearly ran for 1,000 yards in 11 games as a rookie, and he has averaged 4.7 yards per rush in his career. Perhaps any running back would thrive in this system.
Add Guerendo this week, even if you do not need to activate him for a tough matchup with a Kansas City Chiefs defense permitting only 88.4 rushing yards per game (fifth best). Fantasy managers notice San Francisco's excellent personnel for fantasy purposes, but this is also a well-run team with creative thinkers and a proper offensive line to execute in myriad ways. Kyle Shanahan has reached two Super Bowls, and he knows what he is doing.
Guerendo breaking off a 76-yarder, in this offense, should surprise nobody. He was a fourth-round pick, nestled between Bucky Irving of Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who has already broken out) and Braelon Allen of the New York Jets (who is nearly there). If Guerendo gets his chance, he will thrive. He has the talent, but also the right system.
Don't be surprised if ... the Titans remain the league's worst offense for fantasy
Few projected Titans sophomore Will Levis as an accurate NFL quarterback, but what we saw from the second-year project on Sunday was a tad ridiculous. Levis completed 16 out of 27 passes (59%) -- and for only 95 yards. He averaged 3.5 yards per attempt. It is tough to win an NFL game when the defense knows the opposing quarterback will not be throwing the football down the field. The Titans average 135 passing yards per game, a similar range as the New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers. However, the Patriots and Chargers are trending upward after Sunday, and all those teams have relevant wide receivers for fantasy.
The Titans, the lone NFL team with nary a wide receiver averaging 8.0 PPR points per game, currently do not. Ridley, who caught 76 out of 136 targets (55%) from the Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars last season (and averaged 13.5 PPR points per game), went without a catch in Sunday's loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Levis targeted him eight times. Ridley has caught only nine out of 27 targets (33%), which is incomprehensible. Things could improve, or the Titans could switch to competent backup Mason Rudolph, but Ridley is averaging only 7.6 PPR points per game. DeAndre Hopkins is at 7.5 PPG. More than 75 wide receivers are doing better.
For greater team perspective, every NFL team except the Titans boasts two or more players averaging double-digit PPR points per game. That includes four Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, three Chargers and Browns, two members of the Denver Broncos, Jaguars and Patriots. The Titans have RB Tony Pollard, and nobody else averages 8.0 points -- not the QB, the TE, the other RB whom many drafted ahead of Pollard (Tyjae Spears). Unless there is a QB change, feel free to move on from all of Pollard's teammates.